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Betting with Rookie QBs: Good Idea or Bad Idea?
More and more in the NFL, teams are relying on rookie quarterbacks to step in right away and lead their offenses. And with that shift in strategy by football teams, bettors have had to consider whether or not wagering on rookie quarterbacks is a good idea. To answer that question, there are plenty of factors to consider.
Risks of Betting Rookie Quarterbacks
There are inherently some risks when betting on rookie quarterbacks in the NFL. Rookie quarterbacks lack the experience that veteran signal-callers do, which means that they may struggle against the complex defenses being played in today’s game. It also means that they are still developing a rapport with their skill position players, especially early in the season during their first game action in the pros.
Of course, the most highly touted rookie quarterbacks are often drafted by teams with the worst rosters in the league. The NFL Draft allows the teams with the worst records to pick first, and those teams tend to have the deepest flaws. So even if a rookie quarterback plays well, they may not get the support that they need from the rest of their offense and the defenses on their side.
Benefits of Betting Rookie Quarterbacks
There are a couple of notable benefits to wagering on rookie quarterbacks, though. The most important of those benefits is the fact that opposing teams don’t have a lot of film on rookie quarterbacks early in their first season. This could mean surprises from the team starting the inexperienced quarterback, which could lead to some easier points than in situations where the defense has a better idea of what is coming.
And from a pure betting perspective, rookie quarterbacks have the potential to be undervalued in the betting market. Many bettors will dismiss rookie quarterbacks right away, causing them to be bigger underdogs than they otherwise would be. If there is value in the betting market, bettors should not be afraid to pull the trigger on a rookie quarterback when called for.
Consider the Matchups
Whether a team is starting a rookie quarterback or the most experienced quarterback in the world, a bettor should consider the matchups ahead of a game before they bet based on quarterback experience level. If a rookie quarterback is playing on a team that has a huge edge with its receivers over the opposing secondary, that quarterback is likely going to have a good day. Or if that quarterback has a poor offensive line, a team with a quality pass rush would be a good bet against his team.
Quarterback play is so important to success in football, but it can still be rendered meaningless if the rest of the team encounters a bad matchup. Conversely, good matchups across the rest of the field can elevate a rookie quarterback to play their best. There is no “one size fits all” solution to football betting, and the same can be said about betting on or against rookie quarterbacks in the National Football League.
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