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How does the weather affect the spread in football?
Football is a sport that is more heavily impacted by weather than the other major sports. With basketball being played indoors and baseball stopping when it rains, football betting is more heavily impacted by adverse weather conditions as well. But just how impactful is the weather when betting on the point spread in football games?
Types of Weather
The first thing to think about when considering the impact of weather on point spread betting in football is what kind of weather the teams are dealing with. In different parts of the United States, the weather can be vastly different throughout the year. And each of those types of weather can have its own unique impacts on how teams play.
Rain, for example, has the biggest impact on the footing of football players. When it rains, underdogs are more likely to hang around in a contest as the rain can provide an additional way of slowing down a more potent offense. Snow, meanwhile, can have an adverse effect on pass-heavy offenses, as is the case with the wind.
Depends on the Team
Also worth considering when it comes to weather’s impact on point spread betting is that every team is different in football. Some teams prefer to move the ball with their running game, while others rely more heavily on the pass to get the ball up and down the field. And teams with those different strategies can be more heavily impacted by different types of weather conditions.
Every football game is different, as unique combinations of teams and players create unique situations in every contest. When you add weather into the equation, there is another variable to think about. Because of that, there is no universal answer to what weather can do to the point spread, as bettors have to consider each team and how they will do in each type of weather.
Weather Creates Variance
Variance is always a part of football, and in sports betting in general, as there are some things that bettors just cannot account for when they are handicapping sports betting markets. The goal for bettors is always to reduce variance as much as they can when they bet on sports. But betting on football in uncommon weather conditions creates a situation where variance is unavoidable.
More than anything, adverse weather conditions create a variance in football betting more than they create consistent impacts on spread betting outcomes. Strange weather can result in players losing their footing or making errant throws more often than they would in more common conditions. But those weather-induced mistakes do not happen consistently or uniformly, and instead, just make football betting outcomes harder to predict.
Because of the increased variance when the weather is less than optimal, bettors must be more careful than usual when they see a troublesome forecast. In sports gambling, the best decision can often be to avoid making a bet on a game. And in cases where the weather can create havoc on the football field, bettors may be better served to simply wait for a better opportunity to wager on another game.
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