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ATP Indian Wells Masters: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz

March 16, 2024


Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz of Spain is set for a tricky clash against third-seed Jannik Sinner of Italy in the Indian Wells Masters semi-finals on Saturday. 

The winner of this semi-final will face either fourth-seed Daniil Medvedev of Russia or 17th-seed Tommy Paul of the United States in Sunday's final. 

The matchup between Alcaraz and Sinner has evolved into one of the most exciting rivalries in elite tennis nowadays, even during the period when the Italian was ranked around the top 10 in the ATP Rankings and wasn't really recognized as a major title contender. 

Now tied at 4-4 (Alcaraz leads 3-2 on hard-courts), Sinner won his last two matches against Alcaraz since he lost 7-6, 6-3 in the Indian Wells semi-finals twelve months ago. Yet, the Italian was victorious (6-7, 6-4, 6-2) in the Miami Open semi-finals as well as in the semi-finals of the China Open (7-6, 6-1) last October. 

Jannik Sinner Betting Preview (-133 at Everygame)

His transformation into a dominant player over the past couple of months has significantly raised expectations and anticipation for Sinner ahead of the two North American Masters 1000 tournaments this month. 

Sinner finds himself in the midst of a 16-match unbeaten run this season when he takes on defending champion Carlos Alcaraz on the 16th of March. 

Sinner blew the competition away at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. The Italian's Indian Wells campaign has been going smoothly but Alcaraz, by all means, represents his toughest test so far and Sinner will need to stay focused throughout. 

Except for his first-set tiebreaker against Ben Shelton in the round of 16, Sinner wasn't properly tested at Indian Wells so far. Furthermore, he's yet to drop a set since his victory over French veteran Gael Monfils at the Rotterdam Open last month. 

The Italian extended his formidable form when he enjoyed a 6-3, 6-3 victory over Jiri Lehecka of the Czech Republic in the quarter-finals. 

Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview (+105 at Everygame)

The quarter-final match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev was halted due to a bee invasion early in the first set but this didn't distract the Spaniard who produced a commanding performance against the experienced German. 

Things were also personal as Zverev ended Carlos Alcaraz's Australian Open hopes nearly two months ago and the Spaniard had and still has a negative record against his German counterpart. Zverev's lead was even more impressive on hard-courts as he boasted a 4-1 record on the surface ahead of his meeting with Alcaraz. 

However, Alcaraz had endured a slow start to the season but has now elevated his game right in time. He will need to play his best tennis in order to challenge what seems to look like an unstoppable Jannik Sinner, who's arguably been the most consistent performer in men's tennis over the past months. 

Failing to defend his title at the Argentina Open in Buenos Aires last month, when the young Spaniard lost his semi-final clash with Chile's Nicolas Jarry in straight sets, top-seed Alcaraz also withdrew early in the first set of his opening round match at the Rio Open (where he surprisingly suffered a comeback loss to Cameron Norrie in last year's final) due to a right ankle injury.

Still, Alcaraz entered the Sunshine Double series as one of the defending champions. He had won the Indian Wells title one year ago, when the Spaniard also defeated Jannik Sinner en route to his third Masters 1000 trophy. 

After an unsuccessful journey to Australia and across South America earlier this year, Alcaraz appears to finally be picking up some good momentum. 

Having played an impressive eight (8!) ATP finals between February and August last season, remarkably winning six of them, Alcaraz is now bidding to reach his first championship match since the Cincinnati Open last year. He is aiming to clinch his first title since Wimbledon, when the Spaniard produced an unbelievable performance to end Novak Djokovic's Grand Slam dream. 

Spooky Express Betting Prediction 

All in all, Jannik Sinner had dropped just four sets (two of them in the Australian Open final against Medvedev) over the course of his 2024 season so far and deserves to be considered the favorite against any other player given his current form, especially on hard surfaces. Can he handle the pressure? We think so. 

Spooky Express Free Play: Jannik Sinner -133 at Everygame for 7/10 Units