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2024 ATP Australian Open Betting Preview: Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev

January 20, 2024

Fifth-seed Andrey Rublev of Russia will take on home favorite Alex de Minaur (10th seed) in the Australian Open round of 16. 


Alex de Minaur leads 3-2 in their head-to-head, but Rublev won their most recent meeting - coming from a set down to notch a 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 win in the Paris Masters quarter-finals last season. It was his first victory against the Australian on hard courts, though. 


Alex De Minaur Betting Preview (+110 at MyBookie) 

Having reached the same stage of the 2022 and 2023 tournaments, De Minaur became the first Australian to reach the fourth round of his home Grand Slam in three consecutive editions since Lleyton Hewitt between 2003 and 2005.


The 24-year-old Australian is at the peak of his career as he became the first Australian to enter the world's top 10 since legendary Lleyton Hewitt in 2006. 


De Minaur kicked-off his season at the 2024 United Cup where he guided Team Australia to the semi-finals as he mastered some extremely impressive results against Top 10 players. 


He lost to Cameron Norrie of Great Britain but then managed to beat Taylor Fritz of the United States and also achieved a remarkable 6-4, 6-4 win over Novak Djokovic in what was the Serb's first defeat in Australia since Hyeon Chung shocked him at the Australian Open in 2018. 


In the United Cup semifinals, Alex de Minaur came from a set down to earn his third successive victory over a top-10 player in the tournament after beating World No. 7 Alexander Zverev. Yet, Team Australia failed to progress to the final, following a 1-2 loss to eventual champions Germany.


Alex de Minaur is yet to play more than three sets at Melbourne Park in 2024. Furthermore, he even played less in his first-round match against Canadian veteran Milos Raonic, who retired early in the third set (at 1-1) and also achieved straight-set victories over two Italian players. 


Following his 6-3, 6-0, 6-3 victory over Matteo Arnaldi in the second round, De Minaur eased to a 6-3, 6-3, 6 -1 win over Flavio Cobolli in just over two hours at John Cain Arena and is now heading to the main stage. 


Something extremely important. Asked what it would mean to further emulate the success of his mentor, De Minaur noted the importance of focusing on his own success: “First of all, I’ll try to get a little bit better and beat my personal best, get to a quarterfinals. That’s the first step,” he said.


Andrey Rublev Betting Preview (-140 at MyBookie)

Andrey Rublev enjoyed an impressive start to the season as he boasts a flawless 7-0 record so far in 2024. He gained momentum during his title-winning campaign at the Hong Kong Tennis Open earlier this month but it's worth noting that the Russian hasn't faced or defeated players of the same caliber as those encountered by Alex de Minaur at the United Cup, for example.


As the top-seeded player, Rublev faced challenges against opponents like Great Britain's qualifier Liam Broady in the second round (his first match of the year) and Chinese wildcard Shang Juncheng in the semi-finals, but he defeated Finland's Emil Ruusuvuori in the final to win his 15th ATP Tour singles title. 


The Russian continued his charge to a benchmark 10th Major quarterfinal by ousting 29th-seed Sebastian Korda of the United States 6-2, 7-6(6), 6-4 at Margaret Court Arena on Friday night (local time).


Thunderous serving and big baseline hitting in general have helped Rublev to establish himself as a Top 10 regular. In his third-round clash against Sebastian Korda, the 26-year-old bagged 83 per cent of points on his first serve and faced only one break point throughout.  


But it was finesse, counterpunching - and his roar - that helped him in the crucial second-set tiebreak, the outcome of which realistically decided proceedings.  


It marked Rublev's second win over an American at Melbourne Park this year as he also outlasted Christopher Eubanks 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 in the second round. However, not everything was so smooth for Rublev en route to the fourth round. 


He faced Thiago Seyboth Wild of Brazil in the opening round - the same player that stunned Russia’s top-ranked player Daniil Medvedev at last year's French Open. 


A South American clay-court specialist, Seyboth Wild had lost the opening two sets but just refused to give up and he dragged Rublev into an exhausting five-setter as the Russian worked his way through a fifth-set tie-break in a match that went on for more than three-and-a-half hours.


Spooky Express Betting Prediction 

While Andrey Rublev boasts a strong record of nine wins in 12 round-of-16 matches at Grand Slams, the Russian has been unable to convert any of his nine quarter final appearances into a semifinal qualification. This surely indicates difficulties and a mental hurdle in overcoming top-tier opponents at this crucial stage of Major tournaments.


Despite Rublev's consistency at this stage of Grand Slams (before the quarter-finals), we're backing the last remaining Australian in men’s singles.


Spooky Express Free Play: Alex de Minaur +110 at MyBookie for 5/10 Units