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ATP Indian Wells Masters Betting Preview and Favorites

March 6, 2024

Fine weather and even some heat awaits the tennis elite for the next 10 days and we expect top-quality matches at the first Masters 1000 tournament of the season. 

The master of all Masters tournaments again. We mark the 50th edition of the men's event at Indian Wells. 

Often recognized as the sixth-largest tennis tournament in the world, the BNP Paribas Open is held at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, which contains the second-largest tennis-specific stadium in the world.

Masters 1000 event since 1990, The Indian Wells Masters represents a fine opportunity for all top players to kick off the Sunshine Double. They all set their sights on Indian Wells and this promises some great matches to bet on.

Remarkably, all Top 32 players have signed up for the Indian Wells  Masters, including tennis greats Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, who missed the Australian Open. 

With virtually all high-profile players in the race, we expect some thrilling matches over the next 10 days and we from Spooky Express have our own expectations and betting predictions for the men’s competition. 

Who are the favorites to win the first Masters 1000 trophy of the season? 

Novak Djokovic +175 at BetUS

The World No. 1 Novak Djokovic of Serbia will make his comeback at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden for the first time since before the Pandemic. 

After he won the title in three consecutive years between 2014 and 2016, Djokovic failed to make an impact in each of his last three participations. Yet, the five-time Indian Wells Masters winner is one of the top favorites to succeed in California. 

We know that Djokovic played just 12 tournaments throughout 2023 and the Serb, remarkably, won seven of them - his biggest number of titles since 2016 (when he once again won seven titles). 

Given his age, the number of tournaments he attends can only go down from now on, and the fact that Djokovic opted to enter the Indian Wells Masters as his first competition following the Australian Open semi-final defeat to Jannik Sinner speaks for his strong desire to clinch his first title in 2024. 

Jannik Sinner +300 at BetUS 

Jannik Sinner amazed the whole tennis world with the magnitude of his Australian Open success. The Italian was brilliant throughout the season's opening Grand Slam and he remained composed in the most challenging moments. 

First, Sinner didn't drop a single set until the semi-finals and he was dragged into a tiebreak just once - during his quarter-final victory over Andrey Rublev of Russia.

 In the semi-finals, Sinner achieved the biggest win of his career as he ended 10-time champion Novak Djokovic's Australian Open streak to become the first one to beat the Serb in the semi-finals at Melbourne Park. His 6-1, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3 win over Djokovic was quite a statement as the Italian became the first player not to face a breakpoint against the World No. 1 in a completed Major match.

And when it looked that the young Italian might crumble in his first major final, losing the opening two sets to Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 6-3, Sinner mounted an epic comeback win over the Russian to clinch his maiden Grand Slam title. 

Sinner returned to action at the Rotterdam Open a few weeks later and he was motivated to claim the title there after losing the championship match to Medvedev one year ago.

With a number of strong performances, Sinner extended his unbeaten form in 2024 (winning 12 matches in a row) to win the competition and rose to a new career high of No. 3 in the world. Thus, the 22-year-old already became the highest-ranked Italian player in history.

Having reached the semi-finals at Indian Wells last year (when he lost to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz), Sinner is now bidding to take the next step by winning his second Masters 1000 title. The Italian proved to be victorious at the Canadian Open last year, following back-to-back final defeats at the Miami Open (in 2021 and 2023).

Carlos Alcaraz +400 at BetUS 

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz arrives in California with hopes of 

securing his first ATP title in 2024. The Spanish star was expected to do better at the Australian Open where he lost in four sets to Alexander Zverev of Germany in the quarter-finals. 

After a few weeks break, Alcaraz traveled to South America where he was the most prominent figure in the South American clay court swing.

In Buenos Aires, Alcaraz was unable to defend his crown as the top-seed was stopped by Nicolas Jarry of Chile in the semi-finals. The World No. 2 then switched to Brazil where he was once again the top seed at the Rio Open, where Alcaraz suffered a comeback defeat to Cameron Norrie in last year's final. 

This year, however, Carlos Alcaraz was forced to retire at the very beginning of his first-round clash with Thiago Monteiro of Brazil (in the first set) due to a right ankle injury. 

Rafael Nadal +4000 at BetUS 

Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz both geared up for the Indian Wells Masters with an entertaining exhibition match in Las Vegas that lasted two hours. The veteran won the first set but Alcaraz eventually won the match and the Spanish duo now goes for glory in California. 

With three Indian Wells titles to his name (the last one from them in 2013), we cannot completely write Nadal off. The Spanish veteran reached the final two years ago, but his long injury layoffs are something to consider and we don't believe he can fight for the title. 

Daniil Medvedev +750 at BetUS 

Having lost yet another Major final, Daniil Medvedev needed some time to physically and mentally recover from the heartbreaking Australian Open final defeat (and an exhausting campaign in general). 

The Russian returned to action in an attempt to defend his title at the Dubai Tennis Championships. Medvedev won the trophy last year, when he also beat Djokovic in the semi-finals - the same stage he failed to win in 2024. 

Medvedev was dethroned after a 5-7, 3-6 loss to Ugo Humbert of France but the main objective probably was to pick up momentum ahead of the Sunshine Double. The 28-year-old will be looking not only to defend his Miami Open crown, but to build on his latest Indian Wells Masters performance (Medvedev lost to Carlos Alcaraz in last year's final). 

Alexander Zverev +2500 at BetUS 

Alexander Zverev was one of the best performing players at Melbourne Park in January but the German once again crumbled under pressure. 

The big-serving German was involved in some spectacular matches en route to the semi-finals, though. In any case, the manner of Zverev's 6-1, 6-3, 6-7, 6-4 win over Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter-finals was extremely impressive but the 26-year-old eventually failed against Medvedev in the semi-finals. 

Sascha Zverev won the opening two sets and looked confident that he might finally break the semi-final barrier Down Under. However, Medvedev fought back to take the next two sets in tiebreaks and wrapped up the match with a 6-3 win in the decisive set. It surely was an emotional rollercoaster for both players, though. 

After a draining January, where he also guided Team Germany to United Cup success, Zverev took nearly a month break until the lead-up events to the Indian Wells and Miami tournaments. 

His Mexican journey started as a top-seed at the Los Cabos Open where he beat Yoshihito Nishioka of Japan and Thanasi Kokkinakis of Australia in straight-sets before his semi-final exit after a 5-7, 6-4, 6-7 loss to Jordan Thompson of Australia. 

Zverev resumed his campaign at the Mexican Open where he was the top-seed again, but he was eliminated from fellow compatriot Daniel Altmaier in the first round. He'll need to do much better in California. 

Alex de Minaur +2500 at BetUS 

With his recent triumph in Acapulco, Alex de Minaur of Australia successfully defended his trophy and hopes to continue his strong form on hard-courts in 2024. 

With the victory in Mexico, De Minaur managed to end his four-match losing streak in ATP finals, which also includes a loss to Jannik Sinner at the Rotterdam Open last month. However, his 6-4, 6-4 win over Casper Ruud of Norway was a much-needed result and the Australian also won against Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece and an in-form Jack Draper en route to the final. 

Taylor Fritz +4000 at BetUS 

Having reached the quarter-finals at Melbourne Park in January, Taylor Fritz loves the opportunity to compete in his home state and will gladly embrace it. Fritz won his maiden Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells 

and will gladly embrace the opportunity to compete in his home state. 

Fritz defended his title at the Delray Beach Open last month as he did not drop a set en route to his ATP Tour title. 

The 2022 champion is the top-ranked American right now and he certainly hopes to repeat his amazing success, against all the odds. 

However, Fritz might face some tricky opponents early in the competition as the American is set to play either in-form Alejandro Tabilo of Chile or Pavel Kotov of Russia, who also plays his best tennis. 

Assuming that Fritz overcomes his first opponent in Indian Wells, he could face Sebastian Baez of Argentina in the third round. With his recent triumph over Tabilo for the Santiago title, Baez became the first player to win multiple titles during the South American clay-court swing since Cristian Garin in 2020. 

Tommy Paul +8000 at BetUS 

Having won the Dallas Open title last month - his second ATP title - Tommy Paul head to the Riverside County after another strong performance at the Delray Beach Open. 

Paul reached the final in Delray Beach, Florida, where he lost to Taylor Fritz before his trip across the border, where the American lost his first match to Jack Draper at the Mexico Open.

Ugo Humbert +5000 at BetUS 

14th-seed Ugo Humbert is another in-form player who arrives in the United States after some impressive performances over the past weeks.

The Frenchman continued his development as he had won two titles to extend his six-match unbeaten streak in ATP finals. First, Humbert triumphed on home soil where he won the Open 13 in Marseille, having dropped just one set - his first in the competition as he claimed a comeback win over fellow countryman Hugo Gaston before straight-set victories over fellow top-seeds Alejandro Davidofich Fokina, Hubert Hurkacz and Grigor Dimitrov. 

Just a couple of days after his triumph in Marseille, Humbert lost his first round match at the Rotterdam Open to Emil Ruusuvuori of Finland and he also failed to perform particularly well at the Qatar Open, where he lost in straight sets to veteran Gael Monfils in the quarter-finals (his second match). 

However, Ugo Humbert quickly elevated his game at the Dubai Tennis Championships to claim his second ATP 500 title. He beat the likes of Gael Monfils, Andy Murray, Hubert Hurkacz as well as defending champion Daniil Medvedev en route to the final, where he stunned seventh seed Alexander Bublik of Kazakhstan 6-4, 6-3. 

As a result, Humbert not only reached the top 15 in the ATP rankings, but also became the third man in the Open Era to win his first six finals, following Ernests Gulbis of Latvia and Martin Klizan of Slovakia.

The manner of his 7-5, 6-3 win over top-seed Medvedev and the comeback wins over Monfils and third-seet Hurkacz were particularly impressive, which suggests that the Frenchman would fancy his chances of going further at Indian Wells. 

Spooky Express Free Play: Jannik Sinner to win the ATP Indian Wells Masters +300 at BetUS for 5/10 Units