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ATP Indian Wells Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz

March 14, 2024

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz of Spain will face sixth-seed Alexander Zverev of Germany in the Indian Wells Masters quarter-finals on Thursday. 

Alexander Zverev leads 5-3 against Alcaraz but his record (4-1) is even better on hard surfaces. 

The German already stopped Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in January. Thus, the Spaniard will now hope to avoid losing a third consecutive match to Sascha Zverev. 

Carlos Alcaraz claimed his only hard-court win over Zverev in the US Open quarter-finals last year, when he earned a comfortable 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 victory against the German, who was still struggling to find his rhythm after the long-term injury layoff in 2022.

The winner of this match will face either 32nd-seed Jiri Lehecka of the Czech Republic or third-seed Jannik Sinner of Italy in the semi-finals. 

Alexander Zverev Betting Preview (+210 at MyBookie)

With a significant number of Grand Slam semi-finals, two ATP Finals triumphs and even an Olympic gold medal to his name, Zverev is arguably one of the most experienced players on the ATP Tour right now. 

Having won five ATP Masters 1000 titles, Zverev has never advanced beyond the quarterfinals at Indian Wells. He had only reached the quarterfinals once - in 2021 - when he lost a three-setter to Taylor Fritz. 

Last year, Zverev lost a thrilling clash against Daniil Medvedev (7-6, 6-7, 5-7) in the round of 16 and the German will be eager to dethrone the reigning champion in 2024. 

Sascha Zverev found himself in a tricky situation when the German overturned a set deficit to beat 10-th seed Alex de Minaur of Australia in the Indian Wells Masters fourth round. Furthermore, Zverev lost the first set and also conceded a break and faced another breakpoint early in the second set. 

Yet, Zverev rallied his game to outlast his Australian counterpart in nearly three hours. A victory against the in-form De Minaur was a massive confidence booster for the German, whose promising start to the year quickly hit roadblocks, affecting his morale and confidence.

The heartbreaking loss from two sets up to Russian Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals at Melbourne Park changed the direction of his season within weeks, leading to back-to-back upsets (both in three sets) in subsequent matches against Jordan Thompson at the Los Cabos Open and Daniel Altmaier in Acapulco.

Zverev returned to winning ways with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Australia’s Christopher O’Connell in the second round of the Indian Wells Masters. A victory which shouldn’t be underestimated as the Australian had just beat an in-form Jack Draper in the first round.

He went on to beat No. 27 seed Tallon Griekspoor of the Netherlands in the third round, when Zverev saved two set points in the first set tiebreaker to eventually wrap up a 7-6, 6-3 win over the Dutch player.

Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview (-260 at MyBookie)

After a disappointing start to the season, which saw him fail to meet the expectations at the Australian Open, the Spaniard appears to be picking up some good momentum in sunny California. 

He also failed to defend his title at the Argentina Open in Buenos Aires, where Alcaraz lost his semi-final tie to Nicolas Jarry of Chile in straight sets. Alcaraz was also forced to retire early in the opening set of his first-round match in Rio de Janeiro (where he lost the final in 2023) due to a right ankle injury.

Carlos Alcaraz is yet to play a Championship match this season and has only been involved in one title fight since last year's Wimbledon triumph - losing an epic battle with Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati last August. 

Failing to defend his title in Buenos Aires, Alcaraz aims to succeed at this challenge at the Indian Wells Masters this week. Succeeding in this mission is necessary for Alcaraz if he is to maintain his position, as he currently lost his No. 2 spot to Jannik Sinner in the live ATP rankings. 

He may well lose that position next Monday if the Spaniard fails to achieve a better result than his Italian counterpart in Indian Wells.

Alcaraz played out an exhibition match against fellow compatriot Rafael Nadal in Las Vegas but his first genuine test was against Matteo Arnaldi in Indian Wells. The World No. 2 lost his opening set at the Indian Wells Masters (6-7) but he won 12 of the following 13 games to clinch a victory over the Italian. 

However, this may not be enough, and Alcaraz will need to continue this surge of form in the late stage matches, particularly against fellow top players, starting with Germany's Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals.

During his Indian Wells campaign, the 20-year-old Spaniard has shown dominance against opponents with whom he previously held or still holds a negative head-to-head record. 

For example, Alcaraz defeated Fabian Marozsan 6-3, 6-3, with the Hungarian beating Alcaraz at the Rome Masters last year. He also earned a second consecutive comfortable win over Canada's Felix Auger-Aliassime (both in Indian Wells), who still boasts a positive record against Alcaraz (3-2).

Spooky Express Betting Prediction 

Considering Alexander Zverev's historical ability to produce successful tennis against Carlos Alcaraz and especially his record in their previous hardcourt matchups, coupled with Alcaraz's inconsistency this season, this quarterfinal should be viewed as a closely contested one, with both players having equal chances of success.

Spooky Express Free Play: Over 22.5 Games -110 at MyBookie for 6/10 Units