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College Football Betting Preview: Bowling Green Falcons vs. Liberty Flames

September 2, 2023


The Bowling Green Falcons finished last season with a record of 6-7 and a MAC record of 5-3 which led to a tie for 2nd place in the East Division of the MAC Conference and the Falcons making a bowl game for the first time since the 2015 college football season with an appearance in the Quick Lane Bowl against the New Mexico State Aggies which resulted in a 19-24 loss. 

This season, the Falcons enter the season with an over/under win total of 4.5 wins which means Bowling Green is projected to finish with a losing record for the 8th consecutive season and based on Vegas odds is projected to be the 2nd worst team in the MAC Conference projected to only be better than the Kent State Golden Flashes.

The Liberty Flames finished last season with a record of 8-5 which led to an appearance in the Boca Raton Bowl against the Toledo Rockets which resulted in a 19-21 loss. The Flames will have a new head coach for the first time since the 2019 college football season after Hugh Freeze left to become the head coach for the Auburn Tigers, Liberty hired Jamey Chadwell to become their next head coach, Chadwell recently served as the head coach for the Coast Carolina Chanticleers from 2019-2022. 

The Flames will be in a conference for the first time since becoming an FBS school as they are joining Conference USA. This season, Liberty enters the season with an over/under win total of 8.5 wins which means they are projected to become bowl-eligible for the 5th consecutive season and based on Vegas odds are projected to be the 2nd best team in Conference USA only behind the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers as the Flames are +230 to win the Conference USA Championship this season.

BookMaker has the Liberty Flames listed as 9.5-point favorites at home against the Bowl Green Falcons on Saturday for week 1 of the college football season. These teams have only played each other one other time in college football with the game occurring in 2003 which resulted in a 62-3 win for the Bowling Green Falcons, however, Liberty was still an FCS opponent at that time. Bowling Green finished 4-8-1 ATS overall, 2-3-1 ATS on the road, and 4-4-1 ATS as an underdog while Liberty finished 6-7 ATS overall, 2-4 ATS at home, and 1-7 ATS as a favorite.

Liberty is the more talented team entering the season and is projected to finish with a better record as they enter the year with an over/under win total of 8.5 wins while Bowling Green has an over/under win total of 4.5 wins. The teams have only played one other team which resulted in a blowout win for the Bowling Green Falcons, however, that was when the Liberty Flames were still an FCS school. 

I look for the Liberty Flames to get the win, however, I don’t think there is as much talent disparity between the two schools as the odds would indicate, and given the struggles Liberty had at covering the spread as a favorite last season going 1-7 ATS as a favorite I am going to buy the .5 point and taking the Bowling Green Falcons +10 on BookMaker for this matchup in week 1 of the college football season on Saturday.

Spooky Express Pick: Bowling Green Falcons +10

Written By: Daniel Newton