One of the best teams in the ACC will be in action on Thursday night in week 11 of the college football season when the 11^th-ranked Louisville Cardinals host the Virginia Cavaliers in Louisville, Kentucky with the game being played at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium and airing at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN. 

Virginia isn’t going to make a bowl game this season as they enter this game with a record of 2-7 and are on a two-game losing streak following last Saturday’s 17-45 loss at home against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets while also failing to cover the 1-point spread as a home favorite. The Cavaliers were outclassed by the Yellow Jackets last week as they were outgained 514 to 351 total yards offensively and were -3 in the turnover battle in the week 10 loss. The Cavaliers will also miss a bowl game for the 2^nd season in a row following the loss and things won’t be any easier this week when they travel to face the 2^nd place Louisville Cardinals on Thursday night.

The Louisville Cardinals are likely one win away from the ACC Championship game as they enter this game with a record of 8-1 and an ACC conference record of 5-1 while also having defeated the majority of the teams in the conference that have a record of 3-2 in conference play including last week’s win against the Virginia Tech Hokies by a score of 34-3 while also covering the 9-point spread as a home favorite. The Cardinals have outscored their last two opponents 57-3 and have done so against two of the better teams in the conference. Assuming the Cardinals win this matchup they may still need to defeat the Hurricanes next week, but all roads are leading the Louisville Cardinals to facing the Florida State Seminoles for the ACC Championship in what would be one of the better conference championship games this season.

BookMaker has the Louisville Cardinals listed as 20.5-point favorites at home against the Virginia Cavaliers on Thursday night in week 11 of the college football season. Louisville has won five of the nine games all-time while Virginia has won two of the last three meetings. The Cavaliers are 6-3 ATS all-time and 2-1 ATS in the last three games in the series. The Virginia Cavaliers are 6-3 ATS overall, 3-1 ATS on the road, 5-2 ATS as an underdog, and 4-1 ATS in conference games this season while the Louisville Cardinals are 5-4 ATS overall, 5-0 ATS at home, 4-4 ATS as a favorite, and 3-3 ATS in conference games on the year.

Louisville has been the better team this season, however, Virginia has been the better team at covering the spread in the series going 6-3 ATS all-time and 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings. The Cavaliers have also been the better team at covering the spread in conference play as they are 4-1 ATS in conference games while the Cardinals are 3-3 ATS in conference games this season. As a result, I am buying the .5 point and taking the 21 points with the Virginia Cavaliers when they face the Louisville Cardinals.