The UMass Minutemen are one of the worst teams in college football, Over the previous three seasons the Minutemen are averaging one win per season. Last season that win came against Stony Brook, an FCS team, by a score of 20-3. Not only did they lose 11 games but lost by an average margin of almost 22 points per game. This season UMass enters the season with an over/under win total of 2.5 games and I’m willing to bet against them winning over two games as they haven’t won over one game since the 2018 college football season in which they won four games and finished with a record of 4-8.

After not making a bowl game since 2017, the New Mexico State Aggies hired Jerry Kill before the 2022 college football season. Kill improved the Aggies record from 2-10 the year before to a record of 6-6 in the regular season and led them to the Quick Lane Bowl against the Bowling Green Falcons which resulted in a 24-19 win. This season the Aggies have an over/under win total of 6.5 games, Based on Vegas odds the Aggies will once again be a bowl-eligible team. The toughest game for the Aggies isn’t until the end of the season when they will travel to face the Auburn Tigers on November 18^th the majority of the games for the Aggies before that matchup are winnable. I would not be surprised to see the Aggies surpass the 7 game win total this year.

BookMaker has the New Mexico State Aggies listed as 6.5-point favorites at home against the Massachusetts Minutemen. This will be the third meeting between these two teams with New Mexico State having won both games by an average score of 33.5 to 20 while covering the spread in both wins.

Last season the Minutemen were better against the spread than they were in games going 5-7 ATS overall, 3-4 ATS on the road, and 4-7 ATS as an underdog.

The New Mexico State Aggies had a winning season last year finishing with a record of 7-6 and were better at covering the spread as well going 8-5 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS at home, and 4-1 ATS as a favorite.

The New Mexico State Aggies are a more talented team and have been the better team in the series going 2-0 and 2-0 ATS in both of their matchups against the Massachusetts Minutemen. The Aggies also have a higher win total of 6.5 games while the Minutemen have a win total of 2.5 games. New Mexico was better at covering the spread compared to Massachusetts as well, going 8-5 ATS overall and 4-1 ATS as a favorite while Massachusetts went 5-7 ATS overall and 4-7 ATS as an underdog. I look for these trends to continue which is why I don’t mind giving up the 6.5 points in this contest in week 0 of the college football season on Saturday evening. As a result, I am buying the .5 point and taking the New Mexico State Aggies -6 on BookMaker for this game on Saturday.