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College Football Betting Preview: Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears

September 23, 2023


This matchup features a pair of Big 12 rivals when the #3-ranked Texas Longhorns travel to take on the 1-2 Baylor Bears on Saturday evening in week 4 of the college football season. 

Texas enters this game with a record of 3-0 with wins at home against the Rice Owls by a score of 37-10 and the Wyoming Cowboys by a score of 31-10 while winning on the road against the Alabama Crimson Tide by a score of 34-24 while the Baylor Bears enter this game with a record of 1-2 with losses at home against the Texas State Bobcats by a score of 31-42 and the Utah Utes by a score of 13-20 while winning at home against the LIU Sharks by a score of 30-7. Will the Longhorns remain undefeated or will the Bears get the win at home? Let’s take a look at how these teams have fared this season.

The Texas Longhorns enter this game ranked 3rd in the AP Poll and 6th in the Coaches Poll with a record of 3-0 following a 31-10 win at home against the Wyoming Cowboys while failing to cover the 31-point spread as a home favorite in week 3 of the college football season. Texas scored 31 points while compiling 316 total yards offensively which included 131 passing yards and 185 rushing yards while allowing 10 points and 291 total yards defensively which included 136 passing yards and 155 rushing yards. Quinn Ewers led the team in passing, completing 11 of 21 attempts for 131 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for a touchdown. Jonathan Brooks led the team in rushing with 21 carries for 164 yards. Xavier Worthy led the team in receiving, catching four of six targets for 56 yards and a touchdown.

Baylor enters this game with a record of 1-2 following a 30-7 win at home against the LIU Sharks while failing to cover the 44-point spread as a home favorite in week 3 of the college football season. The Bears scored 30 points while compiling 391 total yards offensively which included 121 passing yards and 270 rushing yards while allowing 7 points and 183 total yards defensively which included 40 passing yards and 143 rushing yards. Sawyer Robertson led the team in passing, completing 10 of 22 attempts for 113 yards and a touchdown while adding 14 rushing yards. Dawson Pendergrass led the team in rushing with 21 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown while adding two receptions for 24 yards. Ketron Jackson Jr. led the team in receiving, catching two of five targets for 29 yards.

BookMaker has the Texas Longhorns listed as 14.5-point favorites on the road against the Baylor Bears on Saturday in week 4 of the college football season. Texas has won six of the last ten and two of the last three games while the Bears are 5-4-1 ATS in the last ten games in the series. Texas is 1-2 ATS overall, 1-0 ATS on the road, and 0-2 ATS as a favorite while the Baylor Bears are 0-2-1 ATS overall, 0-2-1 ATS at home, and 0-2 ATS as a favorite on the year.

Texas is the better team this season and has been the better team in the series, winning six of the last ten and two of the last three games. However, the Bears have been the better team at covering the spread in the series, going 5-4-1 ATS in the last ten matchups. As a result, I am buying the .5 point and taking the Baylor Bears +15 on BookMaker for this matchup on Saturday night. 

Spooky Express Pick: Baylor Bears +15