The Texas State Bobcats finished last season with a record of 4-8 and a record of 2-6 in the Sun Belt Conference which led to a 6^th place finish in the West Division of the Sun Belt and the Bobcats missing a bowl game, however, Texas State has not made a bowl game in school history as an FBS school and have finished with a losing record for the 8^th consecutive year. 

The Bobcats enter the season with an over/under win total of 4 wins which means Texas State is projected to miss a bowl game again this season and based on Vegas odds are projected to be the 2^nd worst team in the Sun Belt Conference and finish only better than the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks.

Meanwhile, the Baylor Bears finished last season with a record of 6-7 and a record of 4-5 in the Big 12 Conference which led to a tie for 5^th place in the Big 12 and an appearance in the Armed Forces Bowl against the Air Force Falcons, a game that resulted in a 15-30 loss. The Bears made a bowl game for the 2^nd consecutive season, however, Baylor has finished with a losing record in two of their last three seasons. 

This year, Baylor enters with an over/under win total of 7.5 which which means the Bears are projected to finish bowl-eligible for the 3^rd consecutive season and based on Vegas odds are projected to be the 6^th best team in the Big 12 behind the Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma Sooners, Kansas State Wildcats, Texas Tech Red Raiders, and TCU Horned Frogs.

BookMaker has the Baylor Bears listed as 27.5-point favorites at home against the Texas State Bobcats on Saturday in week 1 of the college football season. Baylor has won all four games in the series by an average score of 32.25 to 17.75 while both teams are 1-1 ATS in the last two games in the series with the most recent game coming last season which resulted in a 42-7 win for the Baylor Bears while the Bears also covered the 30-point spread. Texas State finished last season with a record of 5-7 ATS overall, 2-4 ATS on the road, and 3-5 ATS as an underdog while Baylor finished 7-6 ATS overall, 4-2 ATS at home, and 3-4 ATS as a favorite.

Baylor is the superior team in terms of talent in this matchup and is projected to be the better team this season as the Bears enter the year with an over/under win total of 7.5 wins while the Bobcats have an over/under win total of 4 wins. The Bears were the better team in last season’s matchup as Baylor won by a score of 42-7 while also covering the spread as 30-point favorites. 

I look for that to be the case once again this year which is why I will be buying the .5 point and taking the Baylor Bears -27 at home in week 1 of the college football season on BookMaker.