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Euro 2024 Qualification Betting Preview: Ukraine vs Italy

November 20, 2023



Italy will be keen to avoid another fiasco when the European champions travel to face Ukraine at the BayArena in Leverkusen, Germany, on Monday. 

With 13 points on the board from seven matches, Luciano Spalletti's side only trail already-qualified England in the standings but still need a point to be sure of progress after they beat North Macedonia at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome on Friday night. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine are bidding to claim their first win over Italy, with the Azzurri winning seven of their nine previous meetings, including a 2-1 victory at San Siro in September. 

All in all, Ukraine only managed two draws against Italy as they both were in friendly matches, while Italy holds a perfect record in European Championship qualifying - winning all of their five qualifiers against Ukraine.

Ukraine Betting Preview (+320 at Everygame)

The Blue and Yellow are level on points with the Italians but a 2-1 defeat in the reverse game means that only a victory would see them usurping the second spot in Group C. 

Ukraine held group leaders England to a 1-1 draw at Wembley in September but Serhiy Rebrov's side suffered a disappointing 2-1 defeat at Italy only a few days later. 

However, they returned to winning ways with back-to-back wins over North Macedonia and Ukraine last month and the Ukrainians are now eager to claim their first-ever win against Italy. 

Ukraine captain Andriy Yarmolenko picked up a knee injury last month and the veteran, who also missed last month's international break, is sidelined. 

Genoa's Ruslan Malinovskyi may have to settle for a place on the bench here, with Georgiy Sudakov of Shakhtar Donetsk tipped to start in attacking midfield. 

Up front, Artem Dovbyk should lead the line. The 26-year-old forward is enjoying a remarkable campaign for surprise La Liga leaders Girona, having been directly involved in 11 goals (7 goals and four assists) in 13 league appearances. 

Dovbyk boasts four goals and two assists in his last four La Liga matches and will hope to carry his form into the international break.

Viktor Tsygankov is another standout performer for Girona and the 26-year-old winger should start against Italy on Monday night. He missed the victories over North Macedonia and Malta in October due to a hamstring injury. 

In fact, Tsygankov is the only Ukraine player who had scored more than once in the Euro 2024 qualifiers - as he has two goals to his name. 

Italy Betting Preview (-120 at Everygame)

The Azzurri trained at Coverciano on Sunday morning before their flight to Leverkusen - neutral turf - where the crucial Euro 2024 qualifier against Ukraine will take place on Monday.

All they need is to avoid defeat in order to book their place to next summer's European Championships, thanks to a superior head-to-head record with Ukraine.

A crucial 5-2 victory over the Lynx put Italy in the driving seat, as a Federico Chiesa brace and goals from Matteo Darmian, Giacomo Raspadori and Stephan El Shaarawy made the difference, unlike in the World Cup play-offs last March. 

A draw against Ukraine on Monday will be enough for The Azzurri to qualify for Germany 2024. They went 3-0 up against North Macedonia before the break, but half-time substitute Jani Atanasov scored twice for their opponents in the second half.

However, Italy have a consistent problem that Luciano Spalletti needs to sort out, as of the nine competitive matches played this year, their only clean sheets were both against minnows Malta.

Barella started against North Macedonia last time out and had started alongside his Inter Milan teammate Davide Frattesi in the first match against Ukraine two months ago. Frattesi played a pivotal role in Italy’s victory against the Ukrainians in September by scoring a brace at the Stadio Meazza.

Luciano Spalletti is expected to make several changes to the starting XI against Ukraine on Monday, with Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Davide Frattesi coming in. Di Lorenzo was suspended for the North Macedonia game, but the Napoli captain is set to return in place of Matteo Darmian. 

Elsewhere, with Giorgio Scalvini, Alessandro Bastoni and Rafael Toloi all injured, Francesco Acerbi and Federico Gatti are again the most reliable centre-backs available for selection.

Federico Chiesa is set to start in attack after his two goals against North Macedonia, but the other two roles are up in the air.

Gianluca Scamacca is tipped to be the frontman, while Giacomo Raspadori could still feature on the left flank. The alternative to the Napoli attacker in that role would be AS Roma's Stephan El Shaarawy, who came off the bench to score the fifth goal against North Macedonia. 

Scamacca, who scored against England last month, had scored three goals and one assist in his last three Serie A appearances and the Atalanta forward was only introduced as a late substitute against North Macedonia on Friday. 

Possible Starting Lineups of Ukraine and Italy


  • Ukraine: Anatoliy Trubin - Oleksandr Karavaev, Ilya Zabarnyi, Mykola Matvienko, Vitaliy Mykolenko - Sergiy Sydorchuk, Oleksandr Zinchenko - Viktor Tsygankov, Georgiy Sudakov, Mykhaylo Mudryk - Artem Dovbyk. (4-2-3-1) 

  • Italy: Gianluigi Donnarumma - Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Federico Gatti, Francesco Acerbi, Federico Dimarco - Davide Frattesi, Jorginho, Nicolò Barella - Federico Chiesa, Gianluca Scamacca, Stephan El Shaarawy. (4-3-3) 

Spooky Express Betting Prediction 

The good news for Ukraine is that Serbia secured their own qualification for Euro 2024 on Sunday afternoon.

That means that if Ukraine fail to claim their first win against Italy and eventually finish third, they will still be guaranteed a place in the Euro 2024 play-offs as one of the top four Nations League B teams along with Finland and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Italy, on the other hand, already knew they would be reserved a play-off spot, as it was a reward for winning their Nations League group last year.

Apart from the two clean sheets against Malta, Italy shipped 13 goals in the other seven matches in 2023 - a terrible record for a football culture that had traditionally been based and famous for its strong defense.

Ukraine must find a way to exploit Italy's defensive vulnerability if they are to cause a major upset in Group C and we expect both teams to score.

Spooky Express Free Play: Both teams to score - Yes -118 at Everygame for 7/10 Units