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Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry

February 17, 2024

UFC 298 presents an exciting array of fights, notably highlighting a welterweight showdown between eighth-ranked Geoff Neal and 10th-ranked Ian Machado Garry on the main card. The main card begins on Saturday, February 17, at 10:00 PM ET at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. Garry enjoys a moderate moneyline advantage, standing at -240.

Geoff Neal Betting Preview

Neal is coming off of a third round rear-naked choke submission defeat at the hands of Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 285 in March of last year. This loss snapped his previous two-fight win streak since 2021.

Throughout his career, he has secured 15 victories, comprising nine knockouts, two submissions, and four decisions. Notably, six of his wins were in the first round, while he suffered two losses each via submission and decision.

Dubbed "Handz of Steel," he boasts a 51 percent striking accuracy and a 44 percent takedown success rate. With a significant strike ratio of 5.22 per minute and an absorption rate of 5.60, these stats become pivotal for his upcoming battle as he tends to absorb more than he delivers.

In the UFC, Neal maintains an average of 0.51 takedowns and 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes. His defense is noteworthy, with a 58 percent success rate against significant strikes and an 88 percent success rate against takedowns.

Ian Machado Garry Betting Preview

Garry has been perfect in all 13 of his professional bouts so far. His most recent successful encounter was a unanimous decision over Neil Magny UFC 292 in August of last year.

He boasts 13 victories under his belt, with seven knockouts, one submission, and five decisions. Notably, in four of these triumphs, he swiftly ended the bout within the opening round.

Known by the moniker "The Future," he maintains a striking accuracy of 57 percent and achieves takedowns with a success rate of 75 percent. His combat metrics reveal an average of 6.67 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing only 3.58, showcasing a notable disparity between the two.

On average, Garry secures 0.67 takedowns per 15-minute bout. His defensive skills shine with a 54 percent success rate against significant strikes and an impressive 69 percent success rate against takedowns.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie offers UFC 298 odds, with Ian Machado Garry being a favored contender. Those supporting Garry can opt to include him in a parlay or explore a prop bet for potentially higher payouts than his current moneyline.

Garry’s success inside the octagon is no fluke, especially with his aggressive approach to striking and being able to defend well. This could potentially go to a decision, in favor of Garry, if Neal is defending well against strikes and can offer some action in return.

Final Pick: Ian Machado Garry -240