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Horse Racing Picks by Dietz for Breeders Cup at Santa Anita
November 4, 2023
Well what a kick in the teeth it was yesterday. Started off ok, but quickly went downhill. Have a good feel for the turf course and how the main track is running. Juveniles are never easy to wager on, they all develop at such different rates and any horse can win and it showed.
Changing my game plan just a bit for today. Let’s see what happens.
Race 1 - THE THOROUGHBRED AFTERCARE ALLIANCE - Grade 2 - DIRT
1 - TIME FOR TROUBLE - Castellano/Hiles. Turf to dirt, last two times this horse did this it won and then came in second. 93 Beyers on dirt are legit here.
3 - SISKANY - Buick/Appleby. First try on dirt has me cautioned.
6 - KISS TODAY GOODBYE - Espinoza/Kruljac. Huge drop in class for this horse. Will love the extra distance.
Race 2 - THE TWILIGHT DERBY - Grade 2 - TURF
5 - PANIC ALARM - Dettori/Sadler. Deep closer. The way the turf is running this one should be a threat to win.
6 - WEBSLINGER - Castellano/Casse. Grade 1 level horse will rate and close. 93+ Beyers' last two races has this one on my radar.
12 - SILVER KNOTT - Buick/Appleby. First time gelding should really take to this firm turf course. Rate and closer will need a decent pace set up. Major threat.
13 - WATSONVILLE - Prat/Glatt. Interesting horse. Did a mile in 1 1/16 in 1:41 to win. That is pretty darn quick Pratt on this firm turf course may produce the upset.
BREEDERS CUP RACING
Race 3 - THE DIRT MILE - Grade 1
I think this is one of the formful races. I do not see an upset here.
2 - PRACTICAL MOVE - Vazquez/Yakteen. Horse for the course and winner of four in a row, but has yet to do a mile in under 1:35. That won’t cut it here.
3 - CODY’S WISH - Alvarado/Mott. Rate and closer who will have the pace set up needed to close. Does 1 mile in 1:34 on several occasions. The one to beat!
4 - ZOZOS - Geroux/Cox. Has bullet works coming into this race and has done 1 mile in 1:34 going wire to wire. Let's hope the six horse presses the pace.
Race 4 - THE FILLY AND MARE TURF - Grade 1
1 - IN ITALIAN - Rosario/Brown. 100+ Beyers in each of the last eight races. This horse is ultra consistent. Must use.
2 - WARM HEART - Moore/O’Brien. Invaders did very well yesterday on turf and they did well out west two years ago. This horse has a tremendous closing kick. WINNER!
6 - INSPIRAL - Dettori/Gosden. Closer who will sit off the pace, but better not be too far back. Major threat.
11 - LUMIERE ROCK - McMonagle/O’Brien. Another O’Brien entry. This horse is interesting, this is a front runner who has won going wire to wire at 1 ¼ before. This one takes to the firm turf course and it may take the lead and never look back. Must use.
Race 5 - FILLY AND MARE SPRINT - Grade 1 - DIRT
1 - GOODNIGHT OLIVE - Irad/Brown. We have bet this horse every time it has run and we have done very well with it. Looks to be in top form. Lean to win.
4 - MATAREYA - Prat/Cox. Can do 7F in 1:21 and win. That is legit with GOODNIGHT OLIVE.
7 - SOCIETY - Gaffalione/Asmussen. This horse does 7F in 1:20 and wins by eleven lengths in a Grade 3 level race. He beat MATAREYA in that race. If there is an upset, this is the horse to do it.
Race 6 - THE BREEDER’S CUP MILE - Grade 1 - TURF
2 - GINA ROMANTICA - Gaffalione/Brown. Beyers have been going up and up since coming back off the layoff. Topped off at a 105 last out and that was with this turf rider. They may have something here. Good price.
10 - SONGLINE - Tosaki/Hayashi. Japanese invader who is a beast. This one takes to the US turf and he wins. That is a big “IF.”
11 - KELINA - Guyon/Lafton. This horse has a history of getting into trouble with his races. Very rarely do you get a clean trip. That being said, what do you do? Use in exotics.
14 - MASTER OF THE SEAS - Buick/Appleby. Rate and closer who has been lights out since coming to the US. This will be tough to beat. Top 2.
Race 7 - THE DISTAFF - Grade 1 - DIRT
3 - PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS - Gaffalione/Walsh. Solid rate and closer who will sit off the pace. No shot at winning, but top 3 at a price.
4 - IDIOMATIC - Geroux/Cox. Can do 1 ? in 1:49 and does so on several tracks and in slop. Should take to this track. Lean to win.
8 - RANDOMIZED - Jose/Brown. Winner of the ALABAMA at Saratoga. Lightly raced horse compared to others here, but is still improving.
Race 8 - BREEDERS CUP TURF - Grade 1
5 - AUGUSTE RODIN - Moore/O/Brien. I read about this horse this week. They are very high on him winning. I am only taking this horse based on what I read.
8 - UP THE MARK - Irad/Pletcher. Rate and closer who has won three in a row producing 100+ Beyers. Major threat.
13 - WAR LIKE GODDESS. Alvarado/Mott. This will take a big liking to the firm turf here. The issue is, this horse can’t sit too far back. The ride will be key. I would use exotics for a price.
Race 9 - THE BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC - Grade 1 - DIRT
3 - WHITE ABARRIO - Irad/Dutrow. Won the WHITNEY with ease at Saratoga. Horse is in the best form of career and the extra distance will only help. Major threat.
8 - USHBA TESORO - Kawada/Takagi. Can close like the wind. May not be the best thing on a speed favorite dirt track, but this horse is a legit win threat.
13 - PROXY - Rosario/Stidham. Rate and closer who won the JOCKEY GOLD CUP at Saratoga. This horse was won at Churchill Downs and came in third after being pinched. This is a good exotics horse.
Race 10 - TURF SPRINT - Grade 1
3 - CARAVEL - Gaffalione/Cox. We have made money all year on this rider on turf sprints. Cut back in distance will only help. Top 2.
5 - LIVE IN THE DREAM - Kirranes/West. Will love this firm turf course and that is scary for this group.
10 - MOTORIOUS - Prat/D’Amato. Turf rider who used to own this turf course. This horse is a sprinter and can catch the pace setter in a hurry. Lean to win at a price.
Race 11 - THE BREEDER’S CUP DIRT SPRINT - Grade 1
2 - DR. SCHIVEL - Hernandez/Glatt. 6F in 1:08 here on a wet/fast track. Did it on a dry track in 1:09 to win by 6L.
8 - ELITE POWER - Irad/Mott. Mott has been hot and this horse shows a 1/72 buller work on this track for this race. Top 2, but I am going to try and beat him.
9 - GUNITE - Gaffalione/Asmussen. 6F in 1:08 at Churchill to win by 2L. This will be a chance, but I am taking to win.
Race 12 - $100,000K - TURF
3 - IRISH PARTY - Irad/McCarthy. Rate and closer who won last out in 50K open allowance. Facing non winners of one here.
10 - MADIHA - Espinoza/Doilase. Rate and closer who stretches out after just missing at shorter. Use in all wagers.
12 - ARINNITI - Berrios/Mandella. European invaders should love the firm turf course here. First off the layoff and this one is entered here for a reason in the new barn. Easy mark to win a race.
MOST LIKELY TO WIN
Race 3 - CODY’S WISH
Race 12 - ARINNITI
LONG SHOT OF THE DAY
Race 6 - GINA ROMANTICA
EX BOX OF THE DAY
Race 7 - 3, 4, 8
Race 9 - 3,8/ ALL/ 3, 8, 13
Race 8 - 5, 13
Race 9 - 3, 8, 13
Race 10 - 3, 5, 9, 10
Race 4 - 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 11
Race 5 - 1, 7
Race 6 - 2, 4, 10, 14
Race 7 - 3, 4, 5
Thanks for horse racing with Dietz!
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