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Horse Racing Picks by Dietz for Fair Grounds

February 16, 2024


Today we are going to the Fair Grounds and the big race here is the Risen Star with 50 -25-15-10-5 points in finishing order up for grabs for Kentucky Derby entry. Fourteen races on the card today with some opportunity to make some big cash in Pick 4 and Pick 5 races.  There are some really good maiden races here today. I can see some prices coming from these.

 

Race 4 - DIRT - MAIDEN


  • 1 - HE’s JUST LUCKY - Saez/Amoss. Second time starter faded in debut at 6F, should improve and that makes this one legit.

  • 6 - BENJI STAR - Cohen/Stidham. Another second time starter who closed hard for third in career debut. Speed set up will work well here for this horse. 

  • 11 - WISH CAREFULLY - Torres/Lovell.  Superior Beyers compared to others here. Should rate and close, but the horse does not appear to like to win.

Preferred order -  6-11-1



Race 6 - DIRT - MAIDEN


  • 4 - LA LA ROSE - Pedroza/Foley. Second time starter that closed for second in debut here on this track. Stretches out just a bit and that can only help.

  • 10 - HARBOR SPRINGS - Graham/Foley. Second time started with a 69 Beyer in debut while closing late to get third. Any pace set up here and this one will be rolling late.

  • 11 - GOURMET - Rosario/Asmussen. Winstar Farms barn with a horse that has bullet works for debut. Should be in the mix.

Preferred order - 4 -10-11



Race 7 - DIRT - Maiden


  • 2 - BANNED FOR LIFE - Lanerie/Stall Jr. No doubt this one tries to go wire to wire. Stall likes to have horses with speed first out. I prefer to see Paco Lopez here, but Lanerie is no joke, I just prefer him closing. Have to see how this horse decided to run.

  • 4 - DISCREET MISCHIEF -  Geroux/Cox. First time starter with a great combo in rider and trainer. Hit at 26% with firsters. Sire is INTO MISCHIEF who fire really well the first time out.

  • 11 - HIGGINS BOAT - Gaffalione/Amoss.. Third race of the form cycle. The RIder switch should help here. Should rate and close, if this one tries to go wire to wire I think it is trouble.

Preferred order - 4 - 11 - 2



Race 12 - THE FAIRGROUNDS - Grade 2 - TURF


  • 3 - STRONG QUALITY - Geroux/Casse. Top Beyers in here, winning two of the last three races, last one on this turf course. Stretches out just a bit and that is concerning to me.

  • 8 - CAMP HOPE - Hernandez/McPeek. If I learned anything a few weeks ago it is never underestimate this combo going long. Has faced good competition of late and has been very consistent speed wise. Fast fractions will help.  

  • 10 - BEATBOX - Rosrio/DeVaux. Closing horse who has just missed the last three races at 1 1/16 coming in second in all. The extra distance just may help. Must use.

Preferred order -  10 - 3 - 8



Race 13 - THE RACHEL ALEXANDRA - Grade 2 - DIRT


  • 4 - INTRICATE - Gaffalione/Walsh. Another very lethal combo. One of only two closer in this race (TARIFA). Fast pace will only help this horse.  Must use.

  • 6 - V V’s DREAM - Hernandez/McPeek. Lethal combo on home track. Horse did this distance in 1:44 at Keeneland to come in second. Rate and closer. Big shot at winning.

  • 7 - WEST OMAHA - Saez/Cox. Horse does 1 mile and 70 yards in 1:43, just a bit shorter than this distance. Did it here on this track. Not sold on the win, but exotics for sure.

Preferred order -  4-1-7-6



Race 14 - THE RISEN STAR - Grade 2 - DIRT


  • 4 - SIERRA LEONE - Gaffalione/Chad Brown. Paid 2.3 million for this horse from GUN RUNNER, I expect a solid effort. Third career start with  91 Beyer last out on a sloppy track. Was it the track or did the horse improve that much the second time out? Still, worth a shot.

  • 5 - MOONLIGHT - Geroux/Pletcher. Last two races have been in the slop in Graded Stakes races and this horse came closing late each race. Prior to that this horse had a 90 Beyer on a dry track. This one takes this and improves it at a nice price.

  • 7 - HALL OF FAME - Santana/Asmussen. We bet this horse last month and he won with ease winning by 10L at 1 1/16 miles here at this track. Had some pace pressure and still drew off to win. Lethal combo as well. Must use.

  • 12 - BEE DANCER - Lanerie/Stewart. Here is my longshot.  Horse ran in a 6F race and closed to win by a length. Trainer is so good on the stretch out. If this horse can rate and close it will be a huge price, if this one tries to go for the lead, it will be toast.  Chance you take.

Preferred order of finish.   4-7-12-5