Spooky Express Sports Betting News & More

Horse Racing Picks by Dietz for Fair Grounds

February 16, 2024

Today we are going to the Fair Grounds and the big race here is the Risen Star with 50 -25-15-10-5 points in finishing order up for grabs for Kentucky Derby entry. Fourteen races on the card today with some opportunity to make some big cash in Pick 4 and Pick 5 races.  There are some really good maiden races here today. I can see some prices coming from these.


Race 4 - DIRT - MAIDEN

  • 1 - HE’s JUST LUCKY - Saez/Amoss. Second time starter faded in debut at 6F, should improve and that makes this one legit.

  • 6 - BENJI STAR - Cohen/Stidham. Another second time starter who closed hard for third in career debut. Speed set up will work well here for this horse. 

  • 11 - WISH CAREFULLY - Torres/Lovell.  Superior Beyers compared to others here. Should rate and close, but the horse does not appear to like to win.

Preferred order -  6-11-1

Race 6 - DIRT - MAIDEN

  • 4 - LA LA ROSE - Pedroza/Foley. Second time starter that closed for second in debut here on this track. Stretches out just a bit and that can only help.

  • 10 - HARBOR SPRINGS - Graham/Foley. Second time started with a 69 Beyer in debut while closing late to get third. Any pace set up here and this one will be rolling late.

  • 11 - GOURMET - Rosario/Asmussen. Winstar Farms barn with a horse that has bullet works for debut. Should be in the mix.

Preferred order - 4 -10-11

Race 7 - DIRT - Maiden

  • 2 - BANNED FOR LIFE - Lanerie/Stall Jr. No doubt this one tries to go wire to wire. Stall likes to have horses with speed first out. I prefer to see Paco Lopez here, but Lanerie is no joke, I just prefer him closing. Have to see how this horse decided to run.

  • 4 - DISCREET MISCHIEF -  Geroux/Cox. First time starter with a great combo in rider and trainer. Hit at 26% with firsters. Sire is INTO MISCHIEF who fire really well the first time out.

  • 11 - HIGGINS BOAT - Gaffalione/Amoss.. Third race of the form cycle. The RIder switch should help here. Should rate and close, if this one tries to go wire to wire I think it is trouble.

Preferred order - 4 - 11 - 2

Race 12 - THE FAIRGROUNDS - Grade 2 - TURF

  • 3 - STRONG QUALITY - Geroux/Casse. Top Beyers in here, winning two of the last three races, last one on this turf course. Stretches out just a bit and that is concerning to me.

  • 8 - CAMP HOPE - Hernandez/McPeek. If I learned anything a few weeks ago it is never underestimate this combo going long. Has faced good competition of late and has been very consistent speed wise. Fast fractions will help.  

  • 10 - BEATBOX - Rosrio/DeVaux. Closing horse who has just missed the last three races at 1 1/16 coming in second in all. The extra distance just may help. Must use.

Preferred order -  10 - 3 - 8


  • 4 - INTRICATE - Gaffalione/Walsh. Another very lethal combo. One of only two closer in this race (TARIFA). Fast pace will only help this horse.  Must use.

  • 6 - V V’s DREAM - Hernandez/McPeek. Lethal combo on home track. Horse did this distance in 1:44 at Keeneland to come in second. Rate and closer. Big shot at winning.

  • 7 - WEST OMAHA - Saez/Cox. Horse does 1 mile and 70 yards in 1:43, just a bit shorter than this distance. Did it here on this track. Not sold on the win, but exotics for sure.

Preferred order -  4-1-7-6

Race 14 - THE RISEN STAR - Grade 2 - DIRT

  • 4 - SIERRA LEONE - Gaffalione/Chad Brown. Paid 2.3 million for this horse from GUN RUNNER, I expect a solid effort. Third career start with  91 Beyer last out on a sloppy track. Was it the track or did the horse improve that much the second time out? Still, worth a shot.

  • 5 - MOONLIGHT - Geroux/Pletcher. Last two races have been in the slop in Graded Stakes races and this horse came closing late each race. Prior to that this horse had a 90 Beyer on a dry track. This one takes this and improves it at a nice price.

  • 7 - HALL OF FAME - Santana/Asmussen. We bet this horse last month and he won with ease winning by 10L at 1 1/16 miles here at this track. Had some pace pressure and still drew off to win. Lethal combo as well. Must use.

  • 12 - BEE DANCER - Lanerie/Stewart. Here is my longshot.  Horse ran in a 6F race and closed to win by a length. Trainer is so good on the stretch out. If this horse can rate and close it will be a huge price, if this one tries to go for the lead, it will be toast.  Chance you take.

Preferred order of finish.   4-7-12-5