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MLB Betting Preview: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

September 23, 2023


The Pirates are likely to finish with a losing record for the 5th consecutive season and are going to miss the playoffs for the 7th year in a row. Cincinnati has struggled in September and has fallen to 1.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Pittsburgh won game one of the series on Friday by a score of 7-5 which was their 3rd win in a row. Will the Pirates extend their winning streak to four games or will the Reds end their three-game losing streak? Let’s take a deeper dive into how these teams are performing this season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have already been eliminated from playoff contention as they are seven games behind the Chicago Cubs for the final Wild Card Spot in the National League which means the Pirates will miss the playoffs for the 7th consecutive year. Pittsburgh has compiled a record of 12-8 in September and is on a three-game winning streak which includes a 7-5 win on the road against the Cincinnati Reds in game one of the series on Friday. Two of the runs for the Pirates came in the 6th inning which included one-run home runs hit by Jared Triolo and Endy Rodriguez.

Cincinnati enters this game with a record of 79-76 which puts them 9.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for 1st place in the NL Central and 1.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Reds have compiled a record of 10-10 in September and are on a three-game losing streak which includes Friday’s 5-7 loss against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Two of the runs for the Cincinnati Reds came in the 6th inning when TJ Friedl hit a two-run home run that also scored Luke Maile.

BookMaker has the Cincinnati Reds listed as -160 money line favorites at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates for game two of the series on Saturday evening. Pittsburgh has won six of the last ten and two of the last three games while winning by an average margin of .4 runs per game over the last ten and 1 run per game over the last three games in the series.

Pittsburgh will send Bailey Falter to the mound while Cincinnati will send Connor Phillips to the mound for game two of the series on Saturday evening. Falter is 2-9 this season with a 4.58 ERA while recording 59 strikeouts while Phillips is 1-0 on the year with an ERA of 5.74 and has recorded 17 strikeouts.

Bailey Falter is 1-1 with a no-decision in his last three starts this season while allowing a total of three runs and recording eight strikeouts in those matchups with his last start coming on the road against the Chicago Cubs in which Falter allowed two runs and recorded one strikeout in a loss.

In his three starts in the majors, Connor Phillips is 1-0 with two no-decisions while allowing a total of 10 runs and recording 17 strikeouts in those starts with his last start coming at home against the Minnesota Twins in which Phillips allowed two runs and struck out seven batters in a win.

Cincinnati enters this game with a better record, however, Pittsburgh has been the better team in the series, winning six of the last ten and two of the last three games. The Pirates have won by an average margin of .4 runs per game over the last ten and 1 run per game over the last three games in the series. As a result, I am taking the money line for the Pittsburgh Pirates at +140 for game two of the series on BookMaker.

Spooky Express Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (+140)