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MLB Betting Preview: Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers

September 22, 2023





The Milwaukee Brewers are almost a lock to win the NL Central while despite their series loss to the Mets, the Miami Marlins are still alive in the Wild Card race in the National League. 

This should shape up as a make-or-break series for the Miami Marlins when they host the Milwaukee Brewers for a three-game series. Will the Brewers extend their winning streak to four games or will the Marlins get the win at home? Let’s take a closer look at how these teams are faring this season.

The Milwaukee Brewers enter this game with an 8-game lead over the Chicago Cubs for 1st place in the NL Central and could clinch the division this weekend. Milwaukee has compiled a record of 13-7 in September and are on a three-game winning streak which includes a 6-0 win on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals in game four of their series. Four of the runs for the Brewers came in the 6th inning which included a three-run home run hit by Victor Caratini which also scored Rowdy Tellez and Andruw Monasterio.

Miami has turned things up a notch in September compiling a record of 12-7 and has moved into a tie with the Chicago Cubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. However, Miami is coming off a 1-2 series loss at home against the New York Mets which ended with Wednesday’s 3-8 loss in game three. Josh Bell accounted for one of the runs when he hit a one-run home run in the 6th inning.

BookMaker has the Milwaukee Brewers listed as -160 money line favorites on the road against the Miami Marlins for game one of the series on Friday. The teams have split the last ten games while Milwaukee has outscored Miami by an average of 3.8 to 2.9 runs per game in those contests and has won two of the last three games by an average margin of .67 runs per game.

The Brewers will have the advantage at pitcher for game one of the series as Milwaukee will send Corbin Burnes to the mound while Miami will send Johnny Cueto to the mound on Friday. Burnes is 9-8 this season with a 3.56 ERA while recording 190 strikeouts while Cueto is 1-4 on the year with an ERA of 6.32 and has recorded 35 strikeouts.

Corbin Burnes is 0-1 with two no-decisions in his last three starts while allowing a total of eight runs and recording 23 strikeouts in those matchups with his last start coming at home against the Washington Nationals in which Burnes allowed four runs and struck out nine in a no-decision.

In his last three starts this season, Johnny Cueto is 0-1 with two no-decisions while allowing ten runs and recording five strikeouts in those starts with his last start coming at home against the New York Mets in which Cueto allowed two runs and didn’t record a strikeout in a no-decision.

Milwaukee is the better team this season and has been the better team most recently in the series, winning two of the last three games. The Brewers have outscored the Marlins by an average of 3.8 to 2.9 runs per game over the last ten while winning by an average margin of .67 runs per game over the last three games in the series. As a result, I am taking the money line for the Milwaukee Brewers at -160 on BookMaker for this matchup on Friday. 

Spooky Express Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (-160)