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MLB Betting Preview: Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

September 26, 2023




The Miami Marlins are within a game of the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks in the Wild Card race and would likely get in if they were able to win out while the New York Mets have failed to meet the expectations they had entering the season and will finish with a losing record. Which team will win game one of the series when the Miami Marlins travel to take on the New York Mets on Tuesday? Let’s take a closer look at how these teams are faring this season.

The Miami Marlins enter this game with a record of 81-75 which puts them 1 game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs who are tied for the 2nd and 3rd Wild Card spots in the National League. Miami has compiled a record of 14-8 in September and is on a two-game winning streak which includes a 6-1 win at home against the Milwaukee Brewers in game three of their series on Sunday. Three of the runs for the Marlins came in the 3rd inning which included Josh Bell hitting a one-run home run.

New York will finish well below the win total they had entering the season as they entered the year with an over/under win total of 93.5 games and will finish with less than 80 wins. The Mets have compiled a record of 10-12 in September and are on a four-game losing streak which includes Sunday’s 2-5 loss against the Philadelphia Phillies. Both runs for the New York Mets came in the 6th inning when Ronny Mauricio hit a two-run home run that also scored Tim Locastro.

BookMaker has the Miami Marlins listed as -125 money line favorites on the road against the New York Mets for game one of the series on Tuesday evening. New York has won seven of the last ten and two of the last three matchups while winning by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game over the last ten and 1.67 runs per game over the last three games in the series.

Miami will send Braxton Garrett to the mound while New York will send Joey Lucchesi to the mound for game one of the series on Tuesday. Garrett is 9-6 this season with a 3.53 ERA while recording 154 strikeouts while Lucchesi is 3-0 on the year with an ERA of 2.88 and has recorded 29 strikeouts.

Braxton Garrett is 1-1 with a no-decision in his last three starts this season while allowing a total of 1 run and recording 18 strikeouts in those matchups with his last start coming at home against the New York Mets in which Garrett didn’t allow a run and struck out seven batters in a no-decision.

In his last three starts this season, Joey Lucchesi is 2-0 with a no-decision while allowing a total of two runs and recording 12 strikeouts in those starts with his last start coming on the road against the Miami Marlins in which Lucchesi allowed two runs while striking out five in a no-decision.

Both pitchers enter this game allowing less than a run per game over their last three starts this season with Braxton Garrett allowing an average of 0.33 runs per game and Joey Lucchesi allowing an average of 0.67 runs per game. The under has hit in six of the last ten and two of the last three games in the series. As a result, I am taking the under 8 runs for game one of the series on BookMaker.

Spooky Express Pick: Under 8 Runs