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MLB Playoffs - AL Division Series Betting Preview: Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins

October 11, 2023

The Houston Astros will be looking to advance to the ALCS with a win when they travel to Minneapolis, Minnesota to take on the Minnesota Twins at Target Field in game four of the ALDS on Wednesday evening which will air on Fox Sports 1 at 7:07 PM. 

Houston is one win away from the ALCS after defeating the Minnesota Twins in game three of the ALDS on Tuesday by a score of 9-1 in which they jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the 1st inning after Jose Abreu hit a three-run home run that also scored Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. The Astros were also helped out by a dominating pitching performance from Cristian Javier who allowed one hit, walked five, and struck out nine batters over five innings on the mound in a win.

Minnesota will hope that their offense has a better performance in game four of the series or else they will be eliminated from the playoffs after winning the AL Central title this season. The Twins were ice cold offensively in game three at home against the Astros with only three hits and one run scored. The lone run came in the 6th inning when Carlos Correa scored off a base hit from Willi Castro. To make matters worse was the poor showing on the mound from Sonny Gray who only lasted 4 innings and allowed eight hits, walked one, and allowed four earned runs while striking out six in a loss.

BookMaker has the Minnesota Twins listed as -123 money line favorites at home against the Houston Astros in game four of the series on Wednesday afternoon. The teams have split the last ten games in the series while Houston has outscored Minnesota by an average of 4.8 to 4.3 runs per game in those matchups while having won two of the last three games by an average margin of 2 runs per game.

Houston will send Jose Urquidy to the mound while Minnesota will send Joe Ryan to the mound for game four of the series on Wednesday. Urquidy is 3-3 this season with a 5.29 ERA while recording 45 strikeouts while Ryan is 11-10 on the year with an ERA of 4.51 and has recorded 197 strikeouts.

Jose Urquidy is 1-0 with two no-decisions in his last three starts this season while allowing a total of two runs and recording four strikeouts in those matchups with his last start coming on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks in which Urquidy didn’t allow a run and struck out two batters in a win.

In his last three starts this season, Joe Ryan is 1-1 with a no-decision while allowing a total of 13 runs and recording 21 strikeouts in those starts with his last start coming on the road against the Colorado Rockies in which Ryan allowed six runs while recording six strikeouts in a no-decision.

Houston is once again the likely favorite to win the ALCS and to advance to the World Series and I look for them to take care of business on Wednesday afternoon. Joe Ryan has struggled on the mound allowing an average of 4.33 runs per game over his last three starts while Jose Urquidy likely won’t get a lot of work, he still has pitched well over his last three appearances allowing a total of two runs. I like getting the Astros at plus money for this matchup and I look for them to advance to the ALCS with a win in game four against the Minnesota Twins.

Spooky Express Pick: Houston Astros Money Line (+112)