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NCAA Tournament Betting Pick & Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. San Diego St Aztecs - March 24, 2023

March 24, 2023

The top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide look to continue their impressive run when they take on 5th-seeded San Diego State in the South Regional Sweet 16 Friday night inside KFC Yumi Center, in Louisville, Kentucky. They jump it up at 6:30 pm and the Crimson Tide are favored by seven points in this one. 

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview

The Crimson Tide (31-5) have shown they are the most balanced team in the nation at times and they will ride the hot hand of freshman forward Brandon Miller, who averages around 19 points a game. He has had some big games this season in spite of some of his off the court issues. In a 73-51 second round win over Maryland, 73-51, he exploded for 19 points and should once again he can be the best player on the floor when the situation arises. 

Senior guard Jahvon Quinerly was the big time presence on the floor as he scored a game-high 22 points in the win over the Terps on 9-of-14 shooting, including 4-of-6 from beyond the arc in the win. 

The Crimson Tide will try to push the pace in this game and really put San Diego State on its heels and try to see if they can match them up and down the floor. The pace will favor the Tide and the pressure will be on San Diego State early and often. The Crimson Tide connected on a solid 44% from the floor, including 33.8% from three-point land during the season. 

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview

The Aztecs (29-6) have also enjoyed a great season and they will look to pull off what would be a huge upset here. They were able to dispatch upset-minded and 13th-seeded Furman, 75-52, in the second round and they were never really tested in that game.

That will not be the case in this one. The Tide will look to push the pace and the Aztecs will try to match them point for point. This could very well be a high scoring affair and it could be a game that hits over 85 plus points. 

On offense they are led by guard Matt Bradley, who averages around 13 points per game and also chips in with four rebounds and three assists per game. They connect on 44% from the floor while connecting on 35% from beyond the arc and they have depth but not a ton of scorers on their roster. So balance will be the key here and they will need to get more production from their starters and not put everything on the shoulders of Bradley. 

Game Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick 

Alabama is 4-1 in their last five games and 2-3 in their last five games against the spread and they are 7-6 in their road games against the number. The totals have gone over in two of their last five games and 11 of their last 20 games at home. San Diego State is 4-1 in their last five games and 3-2 in their last five games against the number and 5-7 in their road games against the spread and the totals have not gone over in their last five games and they have hit just nine of their last 20 games at home. 

Persian Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide -7