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NFL Betting Pick & Prediction: Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens - Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022

December 24, 2022

The Atlanta Falcons (5-9) travel to play the Baltimore Ravens (9-5) Saturday, December 24th at 1 pm ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Atlanta Falcons are heading north to face the Ravens this week.  The Falcons are an old-school team, and their win-loss record shows that old-school football is really hard to play in the modern NFL.  They are the 3rd best rushing team in the league, averaging 164 yards per game on the ground.  To put that in perspective, they still only gain the 28th most yards per game.  They average more yards per game on the ground than through the air. 

Marcus Mariota is not the answer they hoped for when they signed him.  He is inaccurate.  Only completing 61% of his passes this year. 

On defense, their story is told though.  They are bad.  They allow almost 400 yards per game, 248 through the air and 130 on the ground.  They are giving up 23,8 points per game, and only scoring 21.9. top that off with a -4 turnover margin and you are not set up well for success.

Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview

Since Lamar Jackson has gone down, they have been unable to move the ball effectively through the air.  They are atrocious. In their last three games, they are averaging only 134 yards through the air.  They are running the ball effectively, but when you lose to the broncos and the Broncos and the Browns, you are not good right now. 

Thankfully they have a decent cushion in their division, so they are not playing for their playoff lives at the moment.  I look for them to continue to pound the ball on the ground and slow it down.

Their Defense is stellar, allowing an anemic offense to be in the game late, and even win some.  They allow only 327 yards per game, the 10th fewest in the league, and only 85 on the ground.  This looks to set up very nicely for them on a cold Christmas Eve day.

Game Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

Bookmaker has the Ravens as a 6.5-point favorite at home with an over/under of 34 flat.

This year Falcons are 8-6 against the spread but are an atrocious road team.  They are 1-6 on the road.

The Raves are 5-8-1 against the spread and are 4-2 at home this year. 

This game sets up to be a strength for both teams.  Neither team wants to throw the ball at all, and for the most part they wont.  The biggest thing here will be how effective can the falcons be in situation downs.  They are going to face a few 3rd downs that they have to convert.  If they can convert these, I think they can stay in this game, keep it close, and maybe even pull the upset.  If they cant complete any passes or just can move the ball, this will be a low scoring game, but not close.  I look for the scoring to be very scarce in this one.

Pick: Baltimore -6.5 and the under!