The Indianapolis Colts finished last season with a record of 4-12-1 which led to a 3^rd place finish in the AFC South and the Colts missing the playoffs for the 2^nd consecutive season and finishing with a losing record for the first time since the 2019 NFL season.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills finished with a record of 13-3 which led to an AFC East Division Championship and a spot in the AFC Playoffs in which they defeated the Miami Dolphins by a score of 34-31 in the Wild Card round before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in the Division round by a score of 10-27.

BookMaker has the Indianapolis Colts listed as 5.5-point favorites on the road against the Buffalo Bills and has set the total for the over/under plays at 39.5 points. Which team will come away with the win in week 1 of the NFL preseason? Let’s take a closer look at how these teams played last season.

Indianapolis Colts Team Preview

The Indianapolis Colts finished in 3^rd place in the AFC South and missed the playoffs for the 2^nd consecutive season after finishing with a record of 4-12-1. The Colts were 6-11 ATS overall, 3-6 ATS on the road, and 1-6 ATS as a favorite last season.

Offensively, the Indianapolis Colts ranked 30^th in the NFL in points with an average of 17 points per game. Indianapolis ranked 23^rd in rushing yards with an average of 109.76 rushing yards per game. The Colts ranked 23^rd in passing yards with an average of 201.88 passing yards per game.

Defensively, the Colts were tied for 29^th in the NFL in points allowed with an average of 25.12 points allowed per game. Indianapolis ranked 20^th in rushing yards allowed with an average of 124.06 rushing yards allowed per game. The Indianapolis Colts ranked 11^th in passing yards allowed per game with an average of 209.94 passing yards.

Buffalo Bills Team Preview

The Buffalo Bills won the AFC East last season with a record of 13-3, however, Buffalo was eliminated by Cincinnati in the Divisional round by a score of 10-27. The Bills were 8-9-1 ATS overall and 3-6 ATS at home last season.

Offensively, the Buffalo Bills ranked 3^rd in the NFL in points with an average of 27.72 points per game. Buffalo ranked 8^th in rushing yards with an average of 133.44 rushing yards per game. The Bills ranked 5^th in passing yards with an average of 261.5 passing yards per game.

Defensively, the Bills ranked 4^th in points allowed in the NFL with an average of 19.11 points allowed per game. Buffalo ranked 6^th in rushing yards allowed with an average of 104.83 rushing yards allowed per game. The Buffalo Bills ranked 14^th in passing yards allowed per game with an average of 214.56 passing yards.

Series Trends and Game Pick

Indianapolis has won six of the last ten games in the series and has won by an average score of 21.4 to 17.4 while going 5-4-1 ATS in those matchups. The Colts have won two of the last three games in the series and have won by an average score of 34 to 15.67 while going 3-0 ATS in those contests.

The under has hit in seven of the last ten games in the series with the teams combining for an average of 38.8 points per game in those contests. The over has hit in two of the last three games in the series with the teams combining for an average of 49.67 points per game in those matchups.

Buffalo is the better team this season, however, Indianapolis has been the better team in the series, winning six of the last ten and two of the last three games. The Colts are 5-4-1 ATS in the last ten and 3-0 ATS in the last three games in the series. As a result, I am buying the .5 point and taking the Indianapolis Colts -5 on BookMaker for this matchup on Saturday afternoon.