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NFL Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

December 31, 2023

Two AFC East division rivals will square off in week 17 of the NFL season when the New England Patriots travel to Orchard Park, New York to face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium with the game kicking off at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday afternoon and will air on CBS.

New England enters this game with the worst record in the AFC at 4-11, however, they have won two of their last three games including a 26-23 win on the road against the Denver Broncos in week 17 of the NFL season. The Patriots have been one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league as they enter this game averaging 14.13 points per game which is the lowest in the NFL this season. Their passing offense also has been one of the worst as they are averaging the 9th fewest passing yards per game with an average of 189.8 passing yards per game while Mac Jones has had a dreadful season as he enters this game having completed 224 of 345 attempts for 2,120 yards with 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and has been replaced by Bailey Zappe who has looked decent in his place over the last three games as he has completed 57 of 92 attempts for 676 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Defensively, the Patriots have been a slightly above-average scoring defense as they are allowing an average of 21.47 points per game. The New England Patriots will look to win consecutive games for the first time this season when they travel to face the Buffalo Bills.

The Buffalo Bills are in 2nd place in the AFC East with a record of 9-6 and are on a three-game winning streak following a 24-22 win on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers in week 17 of the NFL season. If the playoffs started today the Buffalo Bills would be the 6 seed in the AFC and have a one-game lead over the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Wild Card race and trail the Miami Dolphins by two games for 1st place in the AFC East. Offensively, the Bills have one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL as they enter this game averaging 26.87 points per game which ranks 6th in the league while also featuring an above-average passing and rushing offense this season. Josh Allen has turned the ball over more this season than he has in previous seasons, however, he is still the best offensive threat for Buffalo as he leads the team in passing is 2nd on the team in rushing has completed 340 of 511 attempts for 3,778 yards with 27 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while rushing for 413 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Bills have one of the best scoring defenses as they are allowing the 4th fewest points per game in the NFL with an average of 18.4 points per game. The Buffalo Bills will look to remain in the hunt for the AFC East division title and extend their winning streak to four games when they host the New England Patriots in week 17 of the NFL season.

BookMaker has the Buffalo Bills listed as 12-point favorites at home against the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon in week 17 of the NFL season. Buffalo has won six of the last ten and two of the last three meetings while going 6-4 ATS in the last ten and 2-1 ATS in the last three games in the series. The New England Patriots are 4-10-1 ATS overall, 3-4 ATS on the road, 3-7-1 ATS as an underdog, and 2-2 ATS in division games this season while the Buffalo Bills are 6-9 ATS overall, 4-3 ATS at home, 5-7 ATS as a favorite, and 2-2 ATS in division games on the year.

New England has been the worst team in the AFC this season as they enter this game with a record of 4-11 and have struggled in the series against Buffalo, losing six of the last ten. The Patriots have also been one of the worst teams at covering the spread in the NFL this season with a record of 4-10-1 ATS overall which is why I am laying the points with the Buffalo Bills when they host the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon.

Spooky Express Pick: Buffalo Bills -12