We kick off the 2023 NFL regular season with a nice AFC North matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon.  

The Cincinnati Bengals finished the 2023 NFL Preseason with a record of 0-2-1 with losses at home against the Green Bay Packers by a score of 19-36 and on the road against the Washington Commanders by a score of 19-21 while tying the Atlanta Falcons at home by a score of 13-13. 

The Bengals finished last season with a record of 12-4 which led to an AFC North Division Championship for the 2^nd season in a row and making the playoffs for the 2^nd season in a row in which the Bengals defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card round by a score of 24-17 and winning in the Division round against the Buffalo Bills by a score of 27-10 before losing in the AFC Championship against the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 20-23. 

This year, the Cincinnati Bengals enter the season with an over/under win total of 11.5 wins and based on Vegas odds are projected to win the AFC North for the 3^rd consecutive season as the Bengals are +147 to win the AFC North this season and have the 5^th best odds of winning the Super Bowl this season as Cincinnati is +1001 to accomplish that feat this year.

The Cleveland Browns went 1-2-1 in the NFL preseason winning in the Hall of Fame game against the New York Jets by a score of 21-16 with losses coming at home against the Washington Commanders by a score of 15-17 and on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 32-33 while tying the Philadelphia Eagles on the road by a score of 18-18. Cleveland finished last season with a record of 7-10 which led to a 4^th place finish in the AFC North and the Browns missing the playoffs for the 2^nd consecutive season. 

This season, the Cleveland Browns enter the year with an over/under win total of 9 wins which means the Browns are projected to finish with a winning record for the first time in three seasons and based on Vegas odds the Browns are projected to finish in 4^th place in the AFC North as they are +400 to win the AFC North this year.

BookMaker has the Cincinnati Bengals listed as 2.5-point favorites on the road against the Cleveland Browns in week 1 of the NFL season. Cleveland has won eight of the last ten and two of the last three games in the series and has won by an average score of 28.7 to 22.2 in the last ten and 21 to 17.33 in the last three games in the series. 

Cincinnati finished last season with a record of 13-6 ATS overall, 8-3 ATS on the road, 9-5 ATS as a favorite, and 3-4 ATS in division games while Cleveland finished 8-9 ATS overall, 4-4 ATS at home, 5-5 ATS as an underdog, and 4-2 ATS in division games.

Cincinnati is the more talented team and is projected to finish with a better record as the Bengals enter the season with an over/under win total of 11.5 wins while Cleveland enters with an over/under win total of 9 wins. However, Cleveland has been the better team in the series, winning eight of the last ten and two of the last three games while winning by an average margin of 6.5 points per game over the last ten and 3.67 points per game over the last three games in the series. 

I look for that trend to continue which is why I will be taking the money line for the Cleveland Browns at +122 on BookMaker for this matchup in week 1 of the NFL season.