On Sunday afternoon, the Baltimore Ravens will welcome the Houston Texans into Charm City in a 1:00 PM kickoff of the 2023 NFL season. Baltimore is currently a double-digit favorite sitting at -10 with a total of 43.5 points.   

The Houston Texans finished with a record of 2-1 in the preseason with wins on the road against the New England Patriots by a score of 20-9 and on the road against the New Orleans Saints by a score of 17-13 while losing at home to the Miami Dolphins by a score of 3-28. The Texans finished last season with a record of 3-13-1 which led to a last-place finish in the AFC South and Houston missing the playoffs and finishing with a losing record for the 3^rd consecutive season. 

Houston will have a new coach this season after the firing of Lovie Smith and the hiring of DeMeco Ryans in the offseason Ryans most recently served as the Defensive Coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers from 2021-2022. This season, the Texans enter the year with an over/under win total of 6.5 wins which means Houston is projected to finish with a losing record for the 4^th consecutive season and based on Vegas odds is projected to be the worst team in the AFC South as Houston is +1235 to win the AFC South this year.

Baltimore finished the 2023 NFL Preseason with a record of 1-2 with losses on the road against the Washington Commanders by a score of 28-29 and on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a score of 20-26 while winning at home against the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 20-19. 

The Ravens finished the 2022 NFL season with a record of 10-7 which led to a 2^nd place finish in the AFC North and Baltimore making the playoffs after missing the playoffs in 2021. This season, the Baltimore Ravens enter the season with an over/under win total of 9.5 wins and based on Vegas odds are projected to be the 2^nd best team in the AFC North as the Cincinnati Bengals are the only team projected to be better than the Ravens in the AFC North this year.

BookMaker has the Baltimore Ravens listed as 10-point favorites at home against the Houston Texans on Sunday in week 1 of the NFL season. Baltimore has won eight of the last ten games including the previous three matchups in the series while going 6-4 ATS in the last ten and 2-1 ATS in the last three matchups. 

Houston finished last season with a record of 8-8-1 ATS overall, 5-3-1 ATS on the road, and 8-8-1 ATS as an underdog while Baltimore finished with a record of 8-9-1 ATS overall, 1-6-1 ATS at home, and 4-8 ATS as a favorite.

Baltimore is projected to finish with a better record this season as they enter the season with an over/under win total of 9.5 wins while Houston enters the season with an over/under win total of 6.5 games. The Ravens have been the better team in the series, winning eight of the last ten including the previous three matchups in a row while going 6-4 ATS in the last ten and 2-1 ATS in the last three contests. 

I look for those trends to continue in this matchup in week 1 of the NFL season which is why I am taking the Baltimore Ravens -10 at home against the Houston Texans on BookMaker.