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NFL Betting Preview: Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints

August 27, 2023

The Houston Texans were one of the worst teams last season and although Houston should show improvement this season, I don’t expect them to be a good team and neither does Vegas as they enter the season with an over/under win total of 6.5 wins which is tied for the 2nd lowest win total only ahead of the Arizona Cardinals. The Texans finished last season with an overall record of 3-13-1 which led to a last-place finish in the AFC South and Houston missing the playoffs for the 3rd consecutive season. This year the Texans will have a new quarterback, C.J. Stroud, and a new head coach, Demeco Ryans, who was a standout linebacker during his NFL days for the Texans and served as the Defensive Coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers the previous two seasons.

New Orleans has gone from perennial NFC South titles to being a below-average NFL team finishing with records of 9-8 and 7-10 as well as missing the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. This year the Saints enter the year with an over/under win total of 9.5 wins which means they should be a playoff contender this season and based on Vegas odds are the best team in the NFC South. The Saints were able to make a change at quarterback in the offseason after acquiring Derek Carr who should be the best quarterback they have had since the retirement of Drew Brees.

BookMaker has the New Orleans Saints listed as 3-point favorites at home against the Houston Texans in week 3 of the NFL Preseason. New Orleans has won three of the five games all-time in the series and two of the last three games, however, the Texans have been the better team at covering the spread in the series going 3-2 ATS all-time and 2-1 ATS in the previous three matchups.

Houston has split their first two preseason games after defeating the New England Patriots in week 1 by a score of 20-9 they were blown out at home against the Miami Dolphins in week 2 of the preseason by a score of 3-28. Davis Mills led the team in passing completing 10 of 22 attempts for 94 yards. Dameon Pierce led the team in rushing with six attempts for 15 yards. Mike Boone led the team in receiving, catching four of five targets for 35 yards.

The Saints will be looking to finish the preseason off undefeated after beating the Kansas City Chiefs at home in week 1 by a score of 26-24 and defeating the Los Angeles Chargers on the road by a score of 22-17. New Orleans is averaging 24 points per game in the preseason while averaging 336.5 total yards, 277 passing yards, and 78 rushing yards per game. Jameis Winston leads the team in passing completing 24 of 34 attempts for 261 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 14 yards. Ellis Merriweather leads the team in rushing with 14 carries for 41 yards. A.T. Perry leads the team in receiving with nine receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown.

New Orleans is the superior team in terms of talent and will have the better quarterback in this matchup with Jameis Winston starting against Davis Mills. The Saints have also been the slightly better team in the series, winning three of the five games all-time and two of the last three games. I look for that trend to continue which is why I am taking the money line for the New Orleans Saints at -155 for the last game of the NFL Preseason on Sunday night.

Spooky Express Pick: New Orleans Saints Money Line (-155)

Written By: Daniel Newton