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NFL Playoffs Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

January 13, 2024



Two struggling AFC teams will square off in the Wild Card round of the AFC Playoffs when the Miami Dolphins travel to Kansas City, Missouri to face the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium with the game kicking off at 8:00 PM ET on Saturday night and will air on the Peacock app.



The Dolphins finished in 2nd place in the AFC East and a record of 11-6, however, Miami enters this game on a two-game losing streak and has only averaged 18.33 points per game over their last three matchups. However, Miami has been one of the highest-scoring teams in the league this season as they are averaging the 2nd most points per game in the NFL with an average of 29.18 points per game and are averaging the most passing yards per game with an average of 265.53 passing yards per game. 



Tua Tagovailoa won the NFL passing title finishing with 4,624 passing yards while Tyreek Hill had the most receiving yards in the league with 1,799 receiving yards. However, Miami has been one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL as they are allowing the 11th most points per game with an average of 23 points allowed per game. The Miami Dolphins will look to end their two-game losing streak when they travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs.



The Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC West for the 8th consecutive season and finished with a record of 11-6 while having won three of their last four games and are on a two-game winning streak following a 13-12 win on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers. Even though the Chiefs aren’t as explosive offensively this season, Kansas City is still an above-average scoring team as they enter this game averaging 21.82 points per game which is more than the league average of 21.77 points per game.

 

The success of the Chiefs this season can be attributed to their defense as they are allowing the 2nd fewest points per game in the NFL with an average of 17.29 points allowed per game. The Kansas City Chiefs will look to advance to the Divisional Round of the AFC Playoffs and extend their winning streak to three games when they host the Miami Dolphins on Saturday night.



BookMaker has the Kansas City Chiefs listed as 4-point favorites at home against the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card round of the AFC Playoffs on Saturday night. Kansas City has won six of the last ten including the previous four meetings. The Chiefs are 5-4-1 ATS in the last ten and have covered the spread in two of the last three games in the series. The Miami Dolphins are 10-7 ATS overall, 4-3 ATS on the road, and 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season while the Kansas City Chiefs are 9-7-1 ATS overall, 4-4 ATS at home, and 8-7-1 ATS as a favorite on the year.



Kansas City has not looked like the same offensive team we are used to seeing, however, they are still an above-average scoring team and have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL while also having one of the best defenses. The Chiefs have been the better team in the series, winning six of the last ten including the last four meetings, and have been the better team at covering the spread in the series going 5-4-1 ATS in the last ten and 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings. I look for those trends to continue which is why I am laying the points with the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday night.

Spooky Express Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -4