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Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober

February 3, 2024

The next UFC Fight Night 235 will offer many exciting fighters, with the co-main event showcasing a lightweight bout between 13th-ranked Renato Moicano against Drew Dober. This event will be at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, February 3 at 7:00 PM ET for the main card. At the moment, Moicano is the favorite with a moneyline at -170.

Renato Moicano Betting Preview

Moicano is returning to action after his first round rear-naked choke submission victory at UFC 281 back in November of 2022. Prior to that, he was defeated by Rafael dos Anjos back at UFC 272 in March of 2022.

His fight record highlights 17 victories, including 10 submissions and seven decisions. Four of these wins saw him finishing in the opening round. Among his five losses, three were by knockout.

His striking accuracy is 48 percent, coupled with a 47 percent success rate in takedowns. In each minute of action, he lands 4.75 significant strikes while absorbing 4.07, allowing for minimal margin of error.

On average, he achieves 1.66 takedowns and 0.71 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time. His defense stands at 61 percent against significant strikes and a sturdy 44 percent against takedowns.

Drew Dober Betting Preview

Dober is coming off of a first round TKO victory against Ricky Glenn back at UFC Fight Night 229 in October of last year. This put him back on the winning side after a first round TKO defeat to Matt Frevola back at UFC 288. 

Examining his combat record, he boasts 27 victories, comprising 14 knockouts, six submissions, and seven decisions. Notably, he has secured 10 first-round finishes, while half of his 12 losses were determined by decision.

With a striking accuracy of 40 percent and a takedown accuracy of 17 percent, he maintains a rate of 4.58 significant strikes landed per minute, closely matched by an acceptance of 4.46. The minimal gap between these averages becomes a critical factor in this upcoming bout.

His statistical performance reveals an average of 0.68 takedowns and 0.09 submissions per 15 minutes of engagement. Demonstrating a robust defense, he successfully fends off significant strikes at a 52 percent rate and takedowns at 57 percent.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

Bookmaker has Renato Moicano as a slight moneyline favorite to win at (-170). Both fighters offer good resumes that should make this an appealing fight.

Moicano has shown to be great on the ground and typically finds ways to keep his opponents there. While this is good, he has issues against good striking. Fiber will make a great case for victory due to his approach to striking, but will likely come up short in a decision.

Final Pick: Renato Moicano -170