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Spooky Express Guide to the Players Championship

March 11, 2024


Golf enthusiasts and sports bettors alike will be gearing up this week for the thrilling greens and nail-biting putts because we're unraveling the Spooky Express Guide to the Players Championship, the fifth major and a spectacle in the golf betting world. 

At the TPC Sawgrass, every drive, approach, and putt can make or break a player's chance at glory, and as a bettor, understanding the intricacies of this tournament is your means to success.

Before we talk about this week, let's go back and look at how we did last week in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We usually do not give out single golfers, but it was too hard to go against Scottie Scheffler, even at the low odds. We gave him out for multiple units, and after the first day, we must admit, we were a little concerned, as he was sitting outside the Top 10, but he came on strong, and once he got the lead, there was no looking back. 

We cashed multiple plays with Scheffler, including playing him flat and also playing him in the Top 10 and Top 20. All in all, it was a good week for us, but we can't brag too much. We have a big one in front of us: the fifth major—the Players Championship

The Players Championship has existed since 1974. This will be its 50th edition, and we think it can set up for a nice payday! 

The Players will start on Thursday and run through Sunday of this week. The tournament can be watched on various platforms, including ESPN+, NBC, and the Golf Channel.  

The Crown Jewel: A Deep-dive into The Players

What makes The Players Championship so encompassing for online gamblers and seasoned bettors is its prestigious standing as 'the fifth major' in golf. This status is nothing short of magnetism for the crème de la crème of professional golfers, who converge in Vedra Beach, Florida, to battle the colossal prize fund and the heralded title each year.

The Players have a prize pool of $25 million, with the winner of the prestigious tournament taking home $4.5 million. In addition to the cash, the winner will add 80 points to their OWGR World Ranking.  

Understanding TPC Sawgrass

The very abode of The Players is the course, TPC Sawgrass. The Pete Dye-designed course is known for its pitfalls and the famous par-3 17th island green. With the hole surrounded by water, it is one of, if not the most challenging shots that golfers will face each year. Course management estimate that this hole sucks up 100K golf balls a year! 

If you break down the course statistics, you'll find that the winners in recent history have excelled at very similar crucial statistics.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green - The SGT2G category consistently emerges as a pivotal factor in success. Winners like Si Woo Kim (2017), Rory McIlroy (2019), and Justin Thomas (2020) gained a substantial percentage of their strokes in this category. The TPC Sawgrass layout demands precision off the tee and effective long-game strategies, making SGT2G an essential element for success.

One needs not to swing for the stars in the first tee shot; a safe, positioned beginning can be more lucrative if it avoids the volatile bailouts and traps that riddle the course. Past champions have often ranked high on driving accuracy, which indicates how well they're likely to start a hole.

Strokes Gained Approach—Successful golfers from 2019 to 2023 showcased a positive impact in the SGAPR category, emphasizing the significance of strong approach play. The average finishing position for the winners in this five-year period is 5th. The course's challenging green complexes demand accuracy, and players who excelled in approach shots, like Justin Thomas in 2021 and Cameron Smith in 2022, reaped the rewards.

Approach shots, however, are not for the faint-hearted. Laying up for a clearer view of the green demands conviction and precision. Players who shine here often display an ability to plot their way through a hole, toggling more carefully managed risks against an assured approach to future strokes.

Strokes Gained Putting - While putting may have a lower percentage impact compared to Tee to Green and Approach, it remains a crucial factor. Winners like Web Simpson (2018) and Cameron Smith (2020) demonstrated a notable edge in SGP, showcasing the importance of a solid putting performance on TPC Sawgrass' undulating greens.

At the heart of TPC Sawgrass is its mercurial putting condition. A player's campaign can hang on one too many lip-outs, and bets on those who have a knack for navigating the greens with consistency and confidence may well be the difference between a significant payout and disappointment.

The Recipe for Victory

If The Players were a cookbook, precision would be its chief ingredient. Every shot here must be calculated for the present benefit and for positioning for future holes, proving a richer ground for slower accumulators rather than the outright bold. Look at golfers with a pedigree for strategic play, calm under-pressure posture, and a history of sustained performance rather than spikes of brilliance.

Our Predictions


  • Xander Schauffele +2500 for 1 Unit

  • Sam Burns +4000 for 1 Unit

  • Tony Finau +6000 for 1 Unit

  • Tom Hoge +6500 for 1 Unit

  • Erik Van Rooyen +11500 for 0.50 Unit

  • Doug Ghim +12500 for 0.50 Unit

  • X. Schauffele Top 20 YES (+100 for 2 Units)

  • S. Burns Top 20 YES (+175 for 2 Units)