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Thomas Petersen vs. Jamal Pogues

February 3, 2024

UFC Fight Night 235 showcases plenty of appealing matchups, with a heavyweight clash between Thomas Petersen and Jamal Pogues in the preliminary card at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Scheduled for Saturday, February 3, this matchup is the opening fight of the night at 4:00 PM ET, with Petersen holding a slight advantage at -165 on the moneyline.

Thomas Petersen Betting Preview

Petersen has won his last three fights and will be making his debut in the UFC. The most recent victory was a second round keylock submission over Chandler Cole in Week 4 of Dana White’s Contender Series back in April of last year.

He has accumulated eight victories, with seven knockouts and one submission. Notably, six of his wins occurred in the first round. His lone loss, a knockout, took place in 2022.

Nicknamed "The Train," he maintains a 73 percent striking accuracy and a 100 percent success rate in takedowns. On average, he delivers 3.59 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.45, resulting in a slightly positive significant strike ratio.

Per 15 minutes, he achieves 7.34 takedowns and 2.45 submissions. Defensively, he boasts a 40 percent success rate against significant strikes and a 100 percent success rate against takedowns.

Jamal Pogues Betting Preview

Pogues has gone 1-1 in UFC battles and just snapped a three-fight win streak in his latest battle. This defeat was a unanimous decision against Michael Parkin at UFC Fight Night 234 in July of last year.

He boasts 10 professional victories, with four knockouts, one submission, and five decisions. Notably, five of these wins occurred in the first round. Out of his four losses, two were due to submission.

Known as "The Stormtrooper," he maintains a 42 percent striking accuracy and a 48 percent takedowns accuracy. Averaging 3.12 significant strikes per minute with an absorption rate of 4.25, he holds a slightly negative differential, which may pose a challenge.

In terms of ground performance in the UFC, he averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes with no submissions. Furthermore, he exhibits a 53 percent defense against significant strikes and a 67 percent takedown defense.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

Bookmaker offers compelling UFC betting odds for this match, with Thomas Petersen being a slight favorite for victory at -160. Both fighters boast impressive credentials on paper, ensuring an exciting matchup for spectators.

This should be a good striking war, as both fighters can land plenty of significant strikes each minute and potentially end the battle early too. Pogues has slightly more experience in the UFC, but not enough to tip the scales in his favor. Overall, Petersen has solid striking and can end the fight quickly on the ground, which bodes well for his chances.

Final Pick: Thomas Petersen -165