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UFC 293 Betting Preview: Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane

September 9, 2023

The upcoming UFC 293 offers exciting betting opportunities all over the place. One of the fights for a good betting prospect is a heavyweight bout on the main card between Justin Tafa and Austen Lane, a second attempt for this fight after a no contest back in June of this year.

  • Location: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia

  • Date: Saturday, September 9, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (PPV)

  • Prelims: 8:00 PM ET (ESPN/ESPN+)

  • Early Prelims: 6:30 PM ET (ESPN+)

Justin Tafa Betting Preview

Tafa recently had a nasty accidental eye poke in his bout with Lane in June, as the fight did not last 30 seconds. Prior to that, he went 2-2 in his last four fights and is on a two-fight win streak.

His resume is full of six wins and they are all by knockout. Four of those knockouts have resulted in first round finishes and two of his three losses have come by decision.

“Bad Man” has a precision in striking that stands out at an impressive 54 percent, yet he lacks a takedown game. He maintains an average of 5.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.95, a less-than-ideal situation in a striking battle.

What is intriguing is his 49 percent defense rate against significant strikes and a perfect 100 percent success rate in defending takedowns. Remarkably, he shows no interest in ground combat, with zero recorded takedowns and submission attempts per 15 minutes of fight time.

Austen Lane Betting Preview

Lane has six consecutive wins under his belt prior to the recent no contest. He is coming off of a successful Dana White Contender Series battle, which was a first round TKO against Richard Jacobi back in September a year ago.

He has accumulated a dozen victories, comprising 11 knockout triumphs and one submission win. What is notable is that nine of these victories were secured in the opening round, while his three losses all came via knockout.

During his DWCS bout, his striking accuracy stood at an impressive 46 percent, although he did not engage much on the ground. He averaged 4.33 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing just 1.67, demonstrating an enticing strike-to-hit ratio.

His defensive skills are commendable too, with a 63 percent defense rate against significant strikes, although he has not yet faced any takedown attempts. Interestingly, he does not exhibit much ground activity, with no recorded takedowns or submission attempts per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie shows their odds, indicating that Justin Tafa is a moderate favorite to win this showdown. You should look into adding Tafa to a parlay with other battles on the night in order to maximize his betting potential.

  • Austen Lane: +195

  • Justin Tafa: -238

Both are going to be attempting a lot of strikes to look for the knockout. This could arguably go either way, but look for Tafa to land the knockout first.

Final Pick: Take Justin Tafa to Win at -238