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UFC 294 Betting Preview: Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev

October 21, 2023

UFC 294 is coming up soon in the United Arab Emirates and will showcase one of the best cards of the year. For the co-main event, it will be a middleweight showdown between top-ranked Kamaru Usman and rising fourth-ranked challenger Khamzat Chimaev.

  • Location: Etihad Arena, Yas Island/Yas West United Arab Emirates

  • Date: Saturday, October 21, 2023

  • Main Card: 2:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 10:00 AM ET (ESPN+)

Kamaru Usman Betting Preview

Usman has lost his last two battles, with both of them coming by Leon Edwards. In his previous bout with Edwards, Usman was defeated by majority decision, as it was an exceptionally close battle back at UFC 286 in March earlier this year.

He has been one of the best fighters for a long time, establishing 20 quality wins with nine knockouts, one sun, and 10 decisions. Three of his wins have been finished in the opening round and he has one loss per category.

“The Nigerian Nightmare” strikes with an accuracy of 52 percent and lands takedowns 46 percent of the time. His significant strike ratio is great, as he delivers 4.46 significant strikes per minute and takes on 2.75. He will need to utilize his entire arsenal of skills to be successful.

Usman’s defense against significant strikes is solid at 57 percent, but his takedown defense is impeccable at 97 percent. On the ground, he lands 2.96 takedowns and 0.10 submissions every 15 minutes of fighting action.

Khamzat Chimaev Betting Preview

Chimaev has yet to be defeated in 12 professional MMA bouts. This will arguably be one of the tougher matchups he has faced, but his resume shows that he is prepared. His most recent win was a first round brabo choke submission over Kevin Holland back at UFC 279 in September of last year.

He has been electrifying in the octagon with 12 wins. These have been won by six knockouts, five submissions, and one decision. In eight of those wins, he has finished the fight in the first round.

“Borz” has a striking accuracy at 60 percent and a takedown accuracy at 57 percent. He lands a highly aggressive 7.30 significant strikes each minute while taking on 3.98. This rate will need to continue if he wants a chance to win.

He has defended decently against significant strikes at 41 percent, but does a great job so far against takedowns at 100 percent. He does a good job on the ground, as he lands 3.98 takedowns and 3.49 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie's odds show Khamzat Chimaev is moderately favored to knock off the top ranked position. Assuming he does, you could look to boost his potential payout in a parlay by adding other fighters to the mix.

  • Kamaru Usman: +213

  • Khamzat Chimaev: -285

Usman has had issues against defending aggressive strikers and ones that have good defense against takedowns. Look for Chimaev to win potentially by decision.

Spooky Express Pick: Take Khamzat Chimaev to Win at -285