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UFC 295 Betting Preview: Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen

November 11, 2023


The abilities of lightweights Jared Gordon (19-6-0) and Mark Madsen (12-1-0) will be put to the test in the early prelims of UFC 295 in New York. Gordon enters this fight as the moneyline favorite with odds at -200.


  • Location: Madison Square Garden in New York

  • Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 8:00 PM ET (ESPNEWS)

  • Early Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (UFC Fight Night)

Jared Gordon Betting Preview

Gordon has gone 1-2 and has a no contest result in his last four fights. His most recent fight was a clashing of the heads (no contest), which was against Bobby Green in April of this year at UFC Fight Night 222.

He has earned 19 wins, which consist of six knockouts, two submissions, and 11 decisions. He has only two first round finishes and four of his six losses have been by knockout.

With a striking accuracy at 58 percent, “Flash” has been great, but his accuracy with landing takedowns comes in a little lower at 40 percent. His ratio in significant strikes is great, as he lands 5.32 significant strikes and absorbs 3.28.

He defends fairly consistently against significant strikes and takedowns, with a rate of 59 percent and 63 percent respectively. On the ground he is somewhat of a threat, as he lands 2.01 takedowns per 15 minutes of action.

Mark Madsen Betting Preview

Madsen recently suffered his first career defeat, which was a third round rear-naked choke submission against Grant Dawson. His 12-fight win streak came to an end at UFC Fight Night 214 a year ago.

Looking at his 12 wins, three have been by knockout, three by submission, and six by decision. Six of these 12 wins have ended in the first round.

“The Olympia” has not had much luck in terms of significant strikes, as he has a negative ratio 3.24 significant strikes delivered and 3.67 absorbed. He strikes with an accuracy of 48 percent and lands 68 percent of his takedowns.

On the defensive side, he defends against significant strikes at a rate of 53 percent and 63 percent against takedowns. He also averages 3.09 takedowns per 15 monkeys.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

The latest odds presented by MyBookie offer Jared Gordon as a moderate favorite. If you wager on Gordon to win, you might want to consider adding him to a parlay with some other fights on the night to potentially increase the payout or opt for a prop bet for slightly more appealing odds.


  • Mark Madsen: +170

  • Jared Gordon: -200

Gordon has an appealing position in his significant strike ratio. Based on him leading into a fight aggressively, he should do well here.

Spooky Express Pick: Take Jared Gordon to Win in a Parlay at -200 or a Prop