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UFC 295 Betting Preview: Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern

November 11, 2023

An exciting women’s strawweight bout is on the main card for UFC 295, featuring fifth-ranked Jessica Andrade and seventh-ranked Mackenzie Dern. For this showdown, Dern is the moneyline favorite at -210 to land the win.

  • Location: Madison Square Garden in New York

  • Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 8:00 PM ET (ESPNEWS)

  • Early Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (UFC Fight Night)

Jessica Andrade Betting Preview

Andrade has not been the most consistent fighter lately, as she has lost her last three battles. Her most recent loss was a second round guillotine choke submission at UFC of ESPN 42 in August of this year.

She has put together 24 wins that are composed of nine knockouts, eight submissions, and seven decisions. 11 of her 24 wins have been finished in the first round. Out of 12 losses, five of them have been by knockout.

She typically lands strikes with an accuracy at 51 percent and takedown attempts at 55 percent. She is aggressive with her strikes, averaging 6.68 significant strikes each minute and taking on 5.34. This is not much room for error and she takes plenty of damage each minute.

Andrade defends decently against significant strikes at 54 percent and against takedowns at 70 percent. She also lands 2.54 takedowns and 0.39 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Mackenzie Dern Betting Preview

Dern has gone 2-2 in her last four fights, but was able to win her latest battle. This was a unanimous decision over Angela Hill back at UFC Fight Night 223 in May earlier this year.

She has amassed 13 wins by seven submissions and six decisions. Six of her seven submissions have ended in the first round. All three of her defeats have come by decision, making her a tough opponent to finish early.

She lands 40 percent of her strikes, but only lands about 15 percent of her takedowns. Her significant strike ratio is a bit negative, showing 3.36 significant strikes a minute and taking on 4.09. This could be an issue if she is not the one engaging here.

Dern does a solid job at defending against significant strikes and against takedowns at 51 and 40 percent, respectively. She also averages 0.81 takedowns and 1.51 submissions per 15 minutes of fighting action.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie offers Mackenzie Dern as a moderate favorite to win here. Bettors may want to consider adding Dern to a parlay with other fights on the night to potentially help maximize her payout, or choose other potential prop bets on Saturday.

  • Jessica Andrade: +155

  • Mackenzie Dern: -210

Andrade has been susceptible to ground losses lately, which might help Dern’s case. Look for her to potentially finish it early.

Spooky Express Pick: Add Mackenzie Dern to Win at -210 in a Parlay