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UFC 295 Betting Preview: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira

November 11, 2023


An excellent light heavyweight title fight is on the line at UFC 295, featuring top-ranked Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1) and third-ranked Alex Pereira (8-2-0). As the headlining event, Pereira is the moneyline favorite at -135 to win.


  • Location: Madison Square Garden in New York

  • Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 8:00 PM ET (ESPNEWS)

  • Early Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (UFC Fight Night)

Jiri Prochazka Betting Preview

Prochazka has not lost a battle since 2015, boasting a 13-fight win streak. His most recent win was a fifth round rear-naked choke submission over Glover Teixeira at UFC 275 in June of last year.

He has recorded 29 wins, with 25 knockouts, three submissions, and a decision. Impressively, 23 of these wins have been first round finishes and only two of his defeats have come by knockout.

“BJP” has a great striking accuracy at 56 percent and has landed just one successful takedown in one attempt this far in his three UFC fights. He has landed 5.77 significant strikes each minute and takes on 5.40, marking a slightly positive ratio.

He defends against significant strikes decently at 40 percent, but does a better job at defending against takedowns at 68 percent. In addition, he manages to throw in 0.38 takedowns and 0.38 submissions per 15 minutes of action.

Alex Pereira Betting Preview

Pereira is coming off of a split decision win over Jan Blachowicz back at UFC 291 in July earlier this year. This put him back on track after losing to Israel Adesanya at UFC 287 in the fight before.

Looking at eight wins so far, he has six knockouts and two decisions. Three of his knockouts have resulted in first round finishes. Of his two defeats, he has one by knockout and submission.

"Poatan” has a powerful striking accuracy at 62 percent and has landed the only takedown he has attempted. He has an appealing significant strike ratio, as he delivers 5.11 significant strikes each minute and takes on 3.70. This puts him at a slight advantage over Prochazka.

His defenses are good, with a 51 percent defense against significant strikes and 70 percent against takedowns. He also manages 0.22 takedowns and 0.22 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has the odds available for this matchup, showing that Alex Pereira is a slight favorite to win. With Prochazka’s limited UFC career, bettors have not given him the benefit of doubt here.


  • Jiri Prochazka: +105

  • Alex Pereira: -135

This battle could go either way, but Prochazka has been impressive with the amount of early finishes in his career. Look for him to end this battle early as well.

Spooky Express Pick: Jiri Prochazka +105