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UFC 295 Betting Preview: Kyung Ho Kang vs. John Castaneda

November 11, 2023

UFC 295 will showcase an appealing betting opportunity in the early prelims for the event in New York. In this catchweight bout, Kyung Ho Kang (19-9-0) takes on John Castaneda (20-6-0). Castaneda is a slight favorite to win this fight at -140.

  • Location: Madison Square Garden in New York

  • Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 8:00 PM ET (ESPNEWS)

  • Early Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (UFC Fight Night)

Kyung Ho Kang Betting Preview

Kang is currently on a two-fight win streak coming into this event. His previous success was a first round rear-naked choke submission over Cristian Quinonez back at UFC on ESPN 47 in June of this year.

Of his 19 wins, he has two knockouts, 12 submissions, and five decisions. Nine of his 19 victories have ended in the first round and six of his nine defeats have come by decision.

“Mr. Perfect” lands strikes at a rate of 49 percent and lands his takedowns at a better rate at 57 percent. His significant strike ratio is slightly positive at 3.09 significant strikes each minute while taking on 2.91. If he stays aggressive, he could put the fight in his favor.

He defends moderately against significant strikes at 59 percent and against takedowns at 70 percent. He also throws in 2.07 takedowns and 0.93 submissions per 15 minutes of action.

John Castaneda Betting Preview

Castaneda recently got back on track after a unanimous decision win over Muin Gafurov at UFC on ESPN 46 in June of this year. Previously, he lost to Daniel Santos at UFC Fight Night 211 by knockout.

His resume now boasts 20 wins spread across eight knockouts, six submissions, and six decisions. His wins have ended in the first round seven times and four out of six losses have come by decision.

“Sexi Mexi” strikes with an accurate success rate at 47 percent and 38 percent of the time for his takedowns. His significant strike ratio is slightly negatively affected, as he lands 4.24 significant strikes a minute and takes on 4.80. This will impact the fight if he cannot defend.

Speaking of defending, he does a solid job against significant strikes at 56 percent and 71 percent of the time against takedowns. He also averages 1.69 takedowns and 0.21 submissions per 15 minutes of fighting time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie shows that this will be a close battle. Currently, John Castaneda is a slight favorite to find success here.

  • Kyung Ho Kang: +120

  • John Castaneda: -140

This battle could go either direction, as their resumes stack up nicely. Kang could succeed if the fight makes it to a decision, but look for Castaneda to end it early.

Spooky Express Pick: John Castaneda -140