Spooky Express Sports Betting News & More

UFC 295 Betting Preview: Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

November 11, 2023

A lightweight bout featuring 14th-ranked Matt Frevola (11-3-1) is coming up soon as he takes on Benoit Saint-Denis (12-1-0) in UFC 295. This fight will be in New York, with Saint-Denis as a moneyline favorite at -230.

  • Location: Madison Square Garden in New York

  • Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 8:00 PM ET (ESPNEWS)

  • Early Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (UFC Fight Night)

Matt Frevola Betting Preview

Frevola has won his last three fights and will put that streak on the line here. His previous successful encounter was a first round knockout over Drew Dober back at UFC 288 in May of this year.

He has an appealing resume of 11 wins spread out evenly with four knockouts, three submissions, and four decisions. He has six first round finishes and two of his three defeats have come by knockout.

“The Steamrolla” strikes with an accuracy at 42 percent, but his takedown accuracy is at 36 percent. His significant strike ratio is slightly positive, with 3.73 significant strikes landed each minute and takes on 3.56.

His defense against significant strikes is appealing at 60 percent, but defends a little weaker against takedowns at 43 percent. He also averages 2.26 takedowns and 0.94 submissions per 15 minutes of action

Benoit Saint-Denis Betting Preview

Saint-Denis has won his last four fights and is aiming to keep that streak alive. His most recent win was a second round TKO over Thiago Moises at UFC Fight Night 226 in September of this year.

All 12 of his wins have come early, as he has three knockouts and nine submissions. Half of them have finished in the first round. In addition, he only has one loss, which is by decision.

“God of War” lands strikes 53 percent of the time, but his takedowns are landed about 36 percent of the time. He has an aggressive significant strike ratio, landing 5.59 per minute while absorbing 5.27. This could affect the outcome of the fight.

On defense, he does decent against significant strikes at 45 percent and against takedowns at 80 percent. He also averages 4.72 takedowns and 1.45 submission in each 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has this battle favoring Benoit Saint-Denis moderately here. Bettors should consider adding him to a parlay with other fights from the night of action to potentially boost his payout. You could also consider a prop bet when more are available Saturday.

  • Matt Frevola: +190

  • Benoit Saint-Denis: -230

Frevola could come out strong and take this, but Saint-Denis is a monster in striking and on the ground. Look for him to end this early.

Spooky Express Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis -230