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UFC 295 Betting Preview: Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes

November 11, 2023


Pat Sabatini (18-4-0) and Diego Lopes (22-6-0) will square up in the octagon for UFC 295 in New York. In this featherweight bout, Sabatini is considered the moneyline favorite with odds at -120.


  • Location: Madison Square Garden in New York

  • Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 8:00 PM ET (ESPNEWS)

  • Early Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (UFC Fight Night)

Pat Sabatini Betting Preview

Sabatini recently got back on track after a recent win against Lucas Almeida back at UFC on ESPN 47. His bout prior to this recent win was a first round TKO loss to Damon Jackson in September of last year. 

In 18 wins so far, two have been by knockout, 11 by submission, and five by decision. Seven of the 11 wins have resulted in first round finishes and he has two losses by knockout and decision.

He has an impressive striking accuracy at 60 percent and a quality takedown accuracy at 45 percent. He does not land a lot of strikes, as his significant strike ratio is solid at 1.95 per minute and takes on 1.35.

Defensively he does enough, with a 52 percent success rate defending against significant strikes and a 43 percent rate against takedowns. He also manages 3.83 takedowns and 1.35 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Diego Lopes Betting Preview

Lopes just recorded an armbar submission win over Gavin Tucker in August at the UFC on ESPN 50 event. This helped put him back on the winning side after losing to Movsar Evloev by unanimous decision in the fight prior.

With 22 triumphs on his resume, he has eight knockouts, 12 submissions, and two decisions. Impressively, 13 of his wins have been first round finishes. Four of his six losses have come by decisions.

He strikes with an accuracy at 50 percent and he has not yet recorded a takedown. His significant strike ratio is a bit lacking, as he lands 2.12 significant strikes and takes on 4.92.

His defenses so far have been a bit weaker. He defends against significant strikes at 37 percent and has a takedown defense of 33 percent. He is also not active on the ground, which could affect this fight negatively for him.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

Pat Sabatini is slightly favored for the latest odds offered by MyBookie. This fight could arguably go either way, making this a great betting opportunity.


  • Diego Lopes: +100

  • Pat Sabatini: -120

This battle is a toss up for a good reason, as both fighters are closely matched. However, Sabatini is slightly more appealing with his striking output and the amount of takedowns per battle.

Spooky Express Pick: Pat Sabatini -120