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UFC 295 Betting Preview: Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall

November 11, 2023


A heavyweight interim title fight is coming up soon at UFC 295, which showcases the talents of second-ranked Sergei Pavlovich (18-1-0) and fourth-ranked Tom Aspinall (13-3-0). In this co-main event, both fighters are a moneyline favorite at -115 to triumph.


  • Location: Madison Square Garden in New York

  • Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 8:00 PM ET (ESPNEWS)

  • Early Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (UFC Fight Night)

Sergei Pavlovich Betting Preview

Pavlovich has won his last six fights prior to entering this matchup. His most recent encounter was a first round TKO over Curtis Blaydes back in April of this year at UFC Fight Night 222.

His fighting resume shows 18 wins that consist of 15 knockouts and three decisions. He has 15 first round finishes so far and his only defeat has come by knockout.

He lands strikes with an accuracy of 49 percent and has not yet been successful with his takedown attempts. His significant strike ratio is aggressive, as he delivers 8.72 significant strikes a minute and takes on 4.33. This is a positive correlation, which should benefit him here.

He defends well against significant strikes and against takedowns, with a 57 percent and 75 percent success rate, respectively. He does not have any action on the ground in UFC contention.

Tom Aspinall Betting Preview

Aspinall has a recent win under his belt, which was a first round TKO over Marcin Tybura back at UFC Fight Night 224 in July of this year. This put him back on track after losing to Blaydes in the previous encounter.

He had accumulated 13 wins that show 10 knockouts and three submissions. 12 of his 13 wins have resulted in first round finishes. He has one loss each by knockout, submission, and a disqualification.

He has a striking success rate of 66 percent and has landed all of his takedowns successfully. He has an aggressive significant strike ratio, averaging 7.65 significant strikes each minute and absorbs just 2.90. This is a competitive ratio compared to Pavlovich.

He defends successfully against significant strikes at a rate of 65 percent and has defended against all takedown attempts. He also manages 3.70 takedowns and 1.85 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie is showing that this battle is a coin flip, as both fighters are evenly matched. This should be an entertaining betting opportunity.


  • Tom Aspinall: -115

  • Sergei Pavlovich: -115

Since both fighters are evenly matched, this is a great opportunity to watch unfold. Aspinall has a slightly better significant strike ratio and is more active on the ground, which could lead to a decision win if he does not end it early.

Spooky Express Pick: Tom Aspinall -115