Spooky Express Sports Betting News & More

UFC 295 Betting Preview: Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa

November 11, 2023

UFC 295 has plenty of great prelim battles to check out soon. One of those battles to look into is a flyweight showdown between 14th-ranked Steve Erceg (10-1-0) and Alessandro Costa (13-3-0). Erceg is favored to win with a moneyline of -198.

  • Location: Madison Square Garden in New York

  • Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 8:00 PM ET (ESPNEWS)

  • Early Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (UFC Fight Night)

Steve Erceg Betting Preview

Erceg has won his last nine fights after suffering his only defeat back in 2017. This recent win was a unanimous decision over David Dvorak back at UFC 289 in June earlier this year. This also marked his debut with the UFC.

He has compiled 10 wins that are composed of a knockout, six submissions, and three decisions. Half of his wins have resulted in first round finishes and his only defeat has come by decision.

“Astro Boy” lands strikes at a rate of 39 percent, but does well for his takedown attempts at 75 percent. His significant strike ratio is a very thin margin, as he delivers 3.60 significant strikes a minute while taking on 3.53. Making a bigger gap here would be beneficial.

Erceg’s defenses are solid, as he defends against significant strikes at 54 percent and against takedowns at 67 percent. He also averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Alessandro Costa Betting Preview

Costa returns to the octagon after a recent second round TKO win over Jimmy Flick at UFC on ESPN 47. This got him back on the winning side after a third round knockout defeat to Amir Albazi in the fight prior.

He has put together a balanced resume in his 13 wins, which consist of four knockouts, six submissions, and three decisions. Eight of his 13 wins have resulted in first round finishes and two of his three defeats have come by knockout.

"Nono” strikes with an accuracy of 43 percent, but does not land takedowns yet in the UFC. His significant strike ratio is solid, but could use more work. He typically delivers 3.82 significant strikes each minute of action and takes on 3.01.

His defense has stood strong so far, as she defends against significant strikes at 63 percent. He also does well in defending against takedowns at 93 percent. He has yet to be active on the ground for UFC fights.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie is offering the most recent odds for this fight, showing that Steve Erceg is nearing a moderate favorite. Bettors could look to add Erceg to a parlay with other fights if they want to potentially boost his payout.

  • Alessandro Costa: +164

  • Steve Erceg: -198

Costa has been appealing, but is lacking a ground game. Look for Erceg to potentially win by decision.

Spooky Express Pick: Steve Erceg -198