Spooky Express Sports Betting News & More

UFC 295 Betting Preview: Tabitha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez

November 11, 2023

UFC 295 has plenty of exciting opportunities for fans and bettors. One battle to check out in the prelims is a women’s strawweight bout between 10th-ranked Tabitha Ricci (9-1-0) and 13th-ranked Lupita Godinez (11-3-0). Godinez is the moneyline favorite at -180.

  • Location: Madison Square Garden in New York

  • Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 8:00 PM ET (ESPNEWS)

  • Early Prelims: 6:00 PM ET (UFC Fight Night)

Tabitha Ricci Betting Preview

Ricci has won her last four fights heading into this matchup. Her most recent win was a unanimous decision over Gillian Robertson back at UFC on ABC 5 in June earlier this year.

She has established nine wins so far with a knockout, three submissions, and five decisions. Overall, two of her wins have resulted in a first round finish and her only defeat has come by knockout.

“Baby Shark” lands strikes with an accuracy of 37 percent and her takedowns at 49 percent. Her significant strike ratio is a bit lacking, as she delivers 4.12 and takes on 4.45 significant strikes per minute. Correcting this will potentially lead her to victory.

Her defenses are solid, as she defends against significant strikes at 61 percent and against takedowns at 67 percent. She also has some ground action, averaging 4.23 takedowns and 0.25 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Lupita Godinez Betting Preview

Godinez is currently on a three-fight win streak, with her most recent win against Elise Reed. This was a second round rear-naked choke submission back at UFC Fight Night 227 in September of this year.

She has accumulated 11 wins, which consist of a knockout, two submissions, and eight decisions. She has two first round finishes and all three of her defeats have come by decision.

"Loopy” has a quality striking accuracy at 50 percent and an accuracy for takedowns at 48 percent. Her significant strike ratio is slightly more appealing than Ricci’s, as she lands 4.03 and takes on 3.52 significant strikes per minute of fight time.

Her defenses are better than her upcoming opponent, she defends against significant strikes at 62 percent and with takedowns at 83 percent. She is also active on the ground per 15 minutes, showing 3.82 takedowns and 1.27 submissions.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has the latest odds for this event, showing that Lupita Godinez is close to becoming a moderate favorite to win here. 

  • Tabitha Ricci: +155

  • Lupita Godinez: -180

Both stack up well on paper, but Ricci has a slightly negative significant strike ratio and she does not defend as well overall. Loopy is more appealing in just about every stat, making her a good option.

Spooky Express Pick: Lupita Godinez to Win at -180