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UFC 296 Betting Preview: Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida

December 16, 2023


UFC 296 approaches on Saturday, December 16, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Keep an eye on the early prelims at 6:00 PM ET, featuring a featherweight clash between Andre Fili and Lucas Almeida. Fili holds the status of the moneyline favorite with odds set at -175 for potential success.

 

Andre Fili Betting Preview

 

Fili has gone 1-2 in his last three fights and needs to find consistency soon. His most recent battle was a unanimous decision defeat to Nathaniel Wood back at UFC Fight Night 224 in July of this year.

 

Looking at his fighting resume, it shows 22 wins that consist of nine knockouts, three submissions, and 10 decisions. In seven of his 22 wins, he has compiled first round finishes. In half of his 10 losses, he has suffered by decision.

 

“Touchy” lands strikes with an accuracy at 37 percent and takedowns at a 48 percent success rate. His significant strike ratio is slightly negative, as he lands 3.83 significant strikes each minute and takes on 4.13. If he has issues defending here, it could be bad news for him.

 

Fili averages 2.22 takedowns and 0.27 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time. He also defends well against significant strikes and against takedowns at 51 and 69 percent, respectively.

 

Lucas Almeida Betting Preview

 

Almeida has gone 2-2 over his last four fights and just recently snapped his two-fight win streak. This was a second round arm-triangle choke submission defeat to Pat Sabatini at UFC on ESPN 47 in June of this year.

 

He has earned 14 wins so far in his career, which consist of nine knockouts and five submissions. Nine of his wins have resulted in first round finishes. So far, he has one loss each by submission and decision.

 

He lands strikes with an accuracy rate of 48 percent, but nothing yet for takedowns. For his significant strikes, he lands 5.29 and takes on 5.29, which shows he does not have any room for error with this aggressive output.

 

Almeida does not have any averages on the ground in the UFC. As for defense, he is a bit below average against significant strikes (45 percent) and against takedowns (40 percent).

 

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

 

MyBookie offers the moneyline odds for this fight, with Andre Fili as a slight favorite to win. Both fighters have appealing striking that could result in an electrifying finish.

 


  • Lucas Almeida: +145

  • Andre Fili: -175

 

Almeida is a bit aggressive with the amount of strikes that he absorbs. Fili slightly takes on more significant strikes each minute, but has a better resume overall to handle this fight. Look for Fili to get back on track.

 

Final Pick: Andre Fili -175