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UFC 296 Betting Preview: Casey O'neill vs. Ariane Lipski

December 16, 2023

UFC 296 has an excellent lineup of fights coming up on Saturday, December 16, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada with the prelims kicking off at 8:00 PM ET. The opening battle of the prelims is a women’s flyweight showdown between 12th-ranked Casey O'neill and Ariane Lipski, with O’Neill a moderate favorite to win with a moneyline at -200.

Casey O'Neill Betting Preview

O’Neill recently had her first defeat of her career, snapping her nine-fight win streak since 2019. This was a unanimous decision against Jennifer Maia back at UFC 286 in March of this year.

She has a balanced resume in her nine wins, consisting of three knockouts, two submissions, and four decisions. She also has one first round finish so far.

“King” has a striking accuracy at 56 percent and lands takedowns at 42 percent. She has an aggressive significant strike ratio, with 8.77 significant strikes landed each minute and 5.90 absorbed. This would be excellent if she can defend better here.

Speaking of defense, she does solidly against significant strikes and takedowns at 58 percent and 71 percent, respectively. She also lands 1.96 takedowns and 0.73 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Ariane Lipski Betting Preview

Lipski has won her last two fights heading into this event, giving her solid momentum. Her most recent victory was a unanimous decision over Melissa Gatto at UFC on ESPN 48 in July of this year.

Out of her 16 wins, six have been by knockout, three by submission, and seven by decision. She has accumulated seven first round finishes. In addition, she has four losses each by knockout and decision.

“Queen of Violence” has landed 40 percent of her strikes and 50 percent of her takedown attempts. Her significant strike ratio is a bit lacking, as she delivers 3.94 significant strikes each minute and takes on 4.20.

Lipski averages 0.54 takedowns and 0.27 submissions per 15 minutes of action. She also boasts a 52 percent significant strike defense and a 78 percent takedown defense.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie reveals their latest odds for this fight, as Casey O'Neill is a moderate favorite to win. Bettors should look into adding O’Neill to a parlay with other fights on the night or consider a prop bet to have a chance at a better payout.

  • Ariane Lipski: +160

  • Casey O'Neill: -200

Lipski is an aggressive fighter when it comes to striking and she might be able to slow down the pace of this fight, or at least keep it in her favor to have a chance. However, O’Neill has shown to be an aggressive striker that is relentless in her pursuit for victory.

Final Pick: Casey O'Neill