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UFC 296 Betting Preview: Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa

December 16, 2023

UFC 296 is coming up soon on Saturday, December 16, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada with the prelims starting at 8:00 PM ET. One battle to check out in the prelims is a women’s bantamweight showdown between fifth-ranked Irene Aldana and ninth-ranked Karol Rosa. Currently, Aldana is a moderate favorite to win with a moneyline at -220.

Irene Aldana Betting Preview

Aldana has gone 2-2 in her last four fights, with both losses against some of the toughest women in the sport. Her most recent defeat was a unanimous decision against Amanda Nunes back at UFC 289 in June of this year.

Out of her 14 career wins, she has compiled eight knockouts, three submissions, and three decisions. Nine of her 14 victories have resulted in first round finishes. In her seven losses, five have come by decision.

She lands strikes with a 39 percent accuracy rate and takedowns at a 50 percent rate of success. Her significant strike ratio is slightly negative, as she lands 4.86 significant strikes and absorbs 5.71 each minute of combat.

Aldana has some activity on the ground, with 0.17 takedowns and 0.26 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time. She also has solid defenses, with a 59 percent success rate against significant strikes and 76 percent against takedowns.

Karol Rosa Betting Preview

Rosa has also gone 2-2 in their last four fights, which have been a loss and then a win in her next fight. Her most recent battle was a split decision over Yana Santos at UFC on ESPN 48 in July of this year.

She has accumulated 17 wins that show four knockouts, two submissions, and 11 decisions. She only has one win that resulted in a first round finish, but has three out of five defeats that have come by decision.

She lands strikes and takedowns at a successful rate of 55 and 48 percent, respectively. Her significant strike ratio is slightly more appealing than Aldana’s, as she delivers 5.43 significant strikes and absorbs 4.17 each minute of combat.

Rosa manages to throw in 1.38 takedowns per 15 minutes of action. She also has respectable defenses with a 49 percent defense against significant strikes and 68 percent against takedowns.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has the odds, which show that Irene Aldana is a moderate contender to find success. Bettors could add Aldana to a parlay in addition to other battles from the event or check out a prop bet that has a potentially better payout.

  • Karol Rosa: +160

  • Irene Aldana: -220

Both fighters have intense significant strike outputs and should put on a good show. However, Aldana offers a complete package to get the job done.

Final Pick: Irene Aldana