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UFC 296 Betting Preview: Martin Buday vs. Shamil Gaziev

December 16, 2023


The approaching UFC 296 event offers exciting betting opportunities. One fight worth your attention is a heavyweight battle between 15th-ranked Martin Buday and Shamil Gaziev on Saturday, December 16 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the early prelims coming at 6:00 PM ET. Buday is the moneyline favorite to win at -140.

Martin Buday Betting Preview

Buday has won his last 12 fights entering this matchup and is a real threat to finish it early. His most recent win was a first round submission over Josh Parisian at UFC on ESPN 51 in August of this year.

He has earned 13 wins so far which have come by seven knockouts, two submissions, and four decisions. He has six first round finishes so far, as well as one loss so far by decision.

“Badys” has a striking accuracy coming in at 53 percent and lands takedowns 50 percent of the time. He has an aggressive significant strike ratio, posting 5.62 significant strikes each minute and taking on 5.40. This will be a key aspect to watch if he takes on too many.

Buday lands 0.30 takedowns and submissions per 15 minutes of action. He also defends against significant strikes at 55 percent and has been successful at 100 percent against takedowns.

Shamil Gaziev Betting Preview

Gaziev is currently undefeated through 11 of his professional fights thus far. In his recent fight, he defeated Greg Velasco by a first round rear-naked choke submission at Dana White’s Contender Series back in September of this year.

Looking at his 11 wins, seven have come by knockout, three by submission, and one by decision. Eight of his 11 wins have resulted in first round finishes.

He went 9-2 in amateur matches before turning professional in 2020. His first quality victory was a split decision over previous 13-0-1 opponent Kirill Kornilov. Since then, he has battled solid opposition to prepare him for this fight.

He currently ranks as the 37th-best heavyweight fighter in the world. In comparison, Buday is currently ranked as the 19th. Gaziev has a tremendous opportunity on his hands to make a good first impression with the UFC.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has the latest odds for this fight, showing that Martin Buday is a slight favorite to win. Based on his recent performances, he has a quality shot to take over here and potentially to end it quickly.


  • Shamil Gaziev: +110

  • Martin Buday: -140

Both fighters have shown that they are capable of winning anywhere in the octagon. Gaziev is a threat to end it early if he can land some heavy strikes. However, Buday presents a more robust striking profile and should be able to finish this fight by a knockout.

Final Pick: Martin Buday -140