Spooky Express Sports Betting News & More

UFC 296 Betting Preview: Paddy Pimblett vs. Tony Ferguson

December 16, 2023


Discover an exciting array of matchups at UFC 296, with the main card scheduled for Saturday, December 16, at 10:00 PM ET in Las Vegas' T-Mobile Arena. Keep an eye on the lightweight clash featuring Paddy Pimblett and Tony Ferguson, where Pimblett holds a moderate favorite status at -350.

Paddy Pimblett Betting Preview

Pimblett has won his last six fights and is aiming to win another. His previous success was a unanimous decision over Jared Gordon back at UFC 282 in December of last year.

He has a balanced resume in his 20 wins, which consists of six knockouts, nine submissions, and five decisions. 11 of these wins have ended in the opening round and two of his three losses have come by decision.

“The Baddy” strikes with an accuracy at 46 percent, but lands takedowns at just 25 percent. He lands 4.19 significant strikes and takes on 3.48 strikes each minute. This is a solid ratio to have, which shows he typically lands more than he absorbs.

Pimblett’s defense against significant strikes and against takedowns are currently set at 42 and 56 percent, respectively. He also averages 0.97 takedowns and 2.42 submissions per 15 minutes of fight time.

Tony Ferguson Betting Preview

Ferguson is arguably one of the best lightweights the UFC has had, but is also arguably on the downhill side of his career. At 39, he has lost his last six fights against quality competition. His recent defeat was a third round arm-triangle choke submission against Bobby Green back at UFC 291 in July of this year.

Out of his 25 career victories, he has 12 knockouts, eight submissions, and five decisions. He has landed nine first round finishes and four of his nine defeats have come by decision.

“El Cucuy” has a striking accuracy at 45 percent and a takedown accuracy at 35 percent. His significant strike ratio is a bit aggressive, as he lands 4.98 significant strikes and absorbs 4.26 in each minute of combat.

He has solid defenses, with a 56 percent success rate against significant strikes and 67 percent against takedowns. He also slides in 0.42 takedowns and 0.95 submissions per 15 minutes of action.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie offers the odds for this fight, with Paddy Pimblett as a moderate favorite. Bettors might want to add Pimblett to a parlay or choose a prop bet on the night to potentially boost his odds.


  • Tony Ferguson: +225

  • Paddy Pimblett: -350

Ferguson was once on top of the lightweight division, but has arguably lost a step and many believe he should retire soon. It is easy to say this, versus being in his shoes as not wanting to give it up. As for Pimblett, he is a star that has quality knockout power.

Pick: Goes The Distance (No) -150