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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Ailin Perez vs. Lucie Pudilova

November 18, 2023


In UFC Fight Night 232, bettors can check out plenty of exciting fights on Saturday, November 18. One battle to check out is the women’s bantamweight showdown between Ailin Perez and Lucie Pudilova, with Perez being the moneyline favorite at -185.


  • Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, November 18, 2023

  • Main Card: 5:00 PM ET

  • Prelims: 2:00 PM ET

  • Coverage: ESPN+

Ailin Perez Betting Preview

Perez is coming off of a unanimous decision win over Ashlee Evans-Smith at UFC on ESPN 49 in July earlier this year. This put her back on the right path after a previous second round rear-naked choke defeat to Stephanie Egger back at UFC Fight Night 209.

Her fighting resume consists of eight wins that are compiled from four knockouts, one submission, and three decisions. Three of her victories have resulted in first round finishes. Out of two losses, she has one by submission and one by disqualification (illegal knees).

“Fiona” strikes with an accuracy at 55 percent and lands her takedowns with a rate of 61 percent. Her significant strike ratio is compelling, with 3.05 significant strikes landed and 1.08 absorbed. This is a favorable ratio that could work in her favor.

Perez defends well against significant strikes at 61 percent of the time and even better against takedowns, at about 75 percent of the time. She also averages an aggressive 6.63 takedowns (she landed 10 in her last fight) per 15 minutes of action.

Lucie Pudilova Betting Preview

Pudilova is returning to the octagon after a split decision defeat to Joselyn Edwards back at UFC on ESPN 44 in April of this year. This snapped her previous three-fight win streak and evened her record in the UFC at 1-1.

She has accumulated 14 wins spanning across three knockouts, two submissions, and nine decisions. Two of these have been finished in the first round, so there is not a huge threat there. Of her eight losses, seven have come by decision.

“Bullet” has a subpar accuracy at 37 percent and is even worse with takedown attempts, landing 28 percent of them. Her significant strike ratio is about even, as she delivers 3.97 significant strikes each minute and takes on 3.95. This shows no breathing room and it could be the difference in this fight.

Pudilova defends against significant strikes at 52 percent and against takedowns at 63 percent. She also throws in 0.62 takedowns in each 15 minutes of fight time.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has the latest odds for this fight, which shows Ailin Perez as a moderate favorite. 

Perez stacks up much better on paper and should be able to win. This will likely come down to a decision, but there is a slight chance Perez could get a submission with her aggressive takedowns.

Spooky Express Pick: Ailin Perez at -185