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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko

September 16, 2023

The upcoming UFC Fight Night features an excellent main event title bout, which sets up great betting opportunities. This showdown is between current women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and top-ranked Valentina Shevchenko.

  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, September 16, 2023

  • Main Card: 10:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

  • Prelims: 7:00 PM ET (ESPN+)

Alexa Grasso Betting Preview

Grasso is on a five fight winning streak heading into this event. Her recent battle was the title fight against Shevchenko at UFC 285 back in March earlier this year, where she won in the fourth round by a face crank submission.

Looking at her impressive 16 wins, she has compiled four knockouts, two submissions, and 10 decisions. Five of those 16 victories have resulted in opening round finishes and two of her three losses have come by decision.

She consistently connects with her strikes at an impressive 43 percent accuracy rate, while her takedowns succeed 44 percent of the time. Her significant strikes per minute ratio is a solid 4.88 delivered and 4.07 received.

In terms of defense, she excels, boasting a 59 percent defense rate against significant strikes and a 61 percent defense rate against takedowns. Furthermore, she remains proactive on the ground, executing 0.38 takedowns and attempting 0.48 submissions every 15 minutes.

Valentina Shevchenko Betting Preview

Shevchenko is aiming to get back on track with her recent defeat to Grasso and get her belt back. This defeat broke her previous nine-fight winning streak dating back to 2018.

In her illustrious professional career, she has notched an impressive total of 23 victories, comprising eight thunderous knockouts, seven expert submissions, and eight well-earned decisions. Among these wins, six have culminated in first-round finishes, while just two of her four losses have come via decision.

When it comes to her striking prowess, she showcases a remarkable 53 percent accuracy, coupled with a commendable 64 percent success rate in executing takedowns. Her significant strike rate remains consistently high, averaging 3.29 strikes per minute, while she absorbs just 1.99 in return.

Throughout a 15-minute contest, she maintains a steady record of 2.57 takedowns and 0.34 submissions, exhibiting her versatility in both offense and submission attempts. On the defensive front, her skills truly shine, as she effectively defends against significant strikes with a formidable 64 percent success rate and wards off takedown attempts with an impressive 72 percent success rate.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie's odds show that this will be a close battle, but slightly in favor of Valentina Shevchenko to reclaim the belt. Either way, this should be an excellent battle since the first one was a shocking upset by Grasso to win the belt.

  • Alexa Grasso: +140

  • Valentina Shevchenko: -166

Shevchenko’s resume still stacks up better like it did the first time. Look for her to claim this one by decision.

Spooky Express Pick: Take Valentina Shevchenko to Win at -166