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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig

November 18, 2023

UFC Fight Night 232 offers compelling betting opportunities, with the main event boasting a middleweight showdown between 10th-ranked Brendan Allen and 13th-ranked Paul Craig. Allen is moderately favored to win with a moneyline at -325.

  • Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, November 18, 2023

  • Main Card: 5:00 PM ET

  • Prelims: 2:00 PM ET

  • Coverage: ESPN+

Brendan Allen Betting Preview

Allen has won his last five fights coming into this event. His most recent successful encounter was a first round rear-naked choke submission over Bruno Silva back at UFC on ABC 5 in June earlier this year.

He has 22 wins so far on his resume, which include five knockouts, 13 submissions, and four decisions. 11 of his 22 wins have resulted in first round finishes, but he also has five losses that are led by two knockouts and two decisions.

“All In” lands strikes with an accuracy of 53 percent and lands takedowns at a rate of 43 percent. He has a narrow margin for significant strikes, landing 3.96 per minute and taking on 3.89. This could be the difference in this fight if he is not able to separate the two.

Allen has subpar defenses, with a 47 percent success in defending against significant strikes and a 56 percent success defending against takedowns. On the ground, he also manages 1.22 takedowns and 1.63 submissions per 15 minutes of action.

Paul Craig Betting Preview

Craig has gone 1-2 over his last three fights, but thankfully was able to break the two-fight losing streak. His most recent battle was a second round TKO win over Andre Muniz back at UFC Fight Night 224 in July earlier this year.

His resume shows 17 early finishes, which consist of four knockouts and 13 submissions. 11 of these wins have ended within the first round and four of his six defeats have come by knockout.

“Bearjew” has a striking accuracy at 46 percent and lands takedowns at 23 percent of the time. His significant strike ratio is slightly negative, as he lands 2.57 and takes on 2.85 significant strikes each minute of combat. Having a negative ratio will not bode well for him here.

His defense is not that appealing either, as he defends against significant strikes and against takedowns at 47 and 43 percent respectively. He also has some ground action, averaging 1.91 takedowns and 1.67 submissions per 15 minutes of action.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie showcases their moneyline odds for this fight, revealing Brendan Allen as a moderate favorite to succeed. Bettors might want to consider adding Allen to a parlay to give his odds a slight boost in the payout, or choose a prop bet when available on Saturday.

  • Paul Craig: +210

  • Brendan Allen: -325

The biggest difference in this fight will be striking, which Craig’s significant strike ratio is lacking. Look for Allen to succeed with a decision.

Spooky Express Pick: Add Brendan Alllen to win at -335 in Parlay or Prop