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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview: Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam

November 18, 2023


Charles Johnson (13-5-0) takes on Rafael Estevam (11-0-0) in the opening fight of the prelims in upcoming UFC Fight Night 232 on Saturday, November 18. This flyweight showdown features Estevam as a moneyline favorite at -148.


  • Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada

  • Date: Saturday, November 18, 2023

  • Main Card: 5:00 PM ET

  • Prelims: 2:00 PM ET

  • Coverage: ESPN+

Charles Johnson Betting Preview

Johnson is currently seeking to break out of his two-fight losing streak. His most recent defeat was a unanimous decision against Cody Durden back in April of this year at UFC on ESPN 45.

His fighting profile shows 13 wins from a variety of sources, which show six knockouts, three submissions, and four decisions. He has four first round finishes and all five of his losses have been by decision.

“InnerG” does a good job at landing strikes with a success rate at 53 percent, but has difficulty landing takedowns at 14 percent. His significant strike success shows 4.23 significant strikes each minute and absorbing 3.75, showing a positive ratio.

He defends modestly against significant strikes and against takedowns at 54 percent each. He also averages 0.23 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Rafael Estevam Betting Preview

Estevam is undefeated through 11 fights and has a great opportunity to stand out in his debut with the UFC. His most recent win was a second round TKO over Joao Elias in Dana White’s Contender Series back in September of last year.

He has a balanced resume that shows 11 wins consisting four knockouts, three submissions, and four decisions. He only has one first round finish so far, which does not show he is a threat to end it in the opening round at least.

“Macapa” has a solid resume and great momentum heading into this event, with his best performance in his most recent fight. However, his recent opponent ranked in the 140’s for best flyweight and is not the same caliber of opponent here.

His current world rank shows that he is 54th for best flyweight fighter. This will be another key test to see if he is ready for the next level of competition.

Odds, Series Trends and Free Pick

MyBookie has the odds favoring Rafael Estevam in this showdown. The market is surprisingly taking him despite it being his debut in the UFC.


  • Charles Johnson: +124

  • Rafael Estevam: -148

Estevam has an impressive track record heading into this fight and deserves some attention. Johnson is also appealing, despite having a 2-3 record in the UFC.

Johnson needs this fight to redeem himself and to show that he is a quality contender in the promotion. With his aggressive significant strikes, he has a great shot at winning this fight.

Spooky Express Pick: Charles Johnson at +124